Estimating the input parameters of real options

Schmähling, Tom (2004-03)

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2004.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The following study project was written by the author in the scope of his MBA Program at the University of Stellenbosch. While the number of articles and books that deal with the theory of real options is extremely large, the use of real options as a valuation tool is not widely accepted in practice. The reason for this obvious discrepancy is the fact that these papers and the models developed therein are highly mathematical and require a thorough knowledge of statistical methods. There are few papers or books that explain the fundamental ideas and basic techniques in such a way that general managers are likely to be convinced that real options valuation is an interesting and valuable tool. The purpose of this study project is to fill this gap, to bring the theory of real options closer to a wider range of people and to make it comprehensible for people who have not studied mathematics or finance. To achieve this aim the study project consists of four parts. Recalling the well-known concept of financial options, the first part explains in detail the basic idea of real options theory. The second part deals with the different existing models that are used to determine the value of real options. However, the focus lies on the comprehensibility of these models and not on the pure mathematical side. In the third and main part of this thesis the different variables that are needed for evaluating real options are discussed and methods to determine realistic values of these variables are explained. Some recommendations will be made as to what one ought to focus on in determining the variables. A valuation with "real" data is discussed in the fourth part.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die werkstuk is in die loop van die outeur se MBA-kursus aan die Universiteit van Stellenbosch voltooi. Die aantal bronne en artikels wat betrekking het op die teorie is eindeloos, terwyl die werklike opsies nog nie wyd aanvaar word in die praktyk nie. Die rede vir die ooglopende verskil is die feit dat die artikels wat betrekking het op die teorie en modelle hoogs wiskundig is en 'n deeglike kennis van statistiek vereis. Daar is tans 'n tekort aan artikels en boeke wat die fundamentele idees en basiese tegnieke van reële opsies verduidelik/oordra op so 'n manier dat dit deur algemene bestuurders gebruik kan word. Die doel van die werkstuk is om hierdie probleem te oorkom deur reële opsie valuasies aan 'n wyer gehoor bekend te stel wat nie 'n wiskundige of finansiele agtergrond beskik nie. Om bogenoemde doelwit te bereik, word die werkstuk in vier dele opgedeel. Die eerste deel verduidelik die basiese beginsel van reële opsie teorie in groot detail. Die tweede deeI dek die verskillende modelle wat tans gebruik word om reële opsies te waardeer. Die fokus Iê egter op die verstaanbaarheid van die modelle en nie noodwendig die wiskundige onder bou nie. In die derde en kerndeel van die verhandeling word die verskillende metodes om reële opsies te waardeer, bespreek, asook die maniere om realistiese waardes volgens verskillende metodes te vind. 'n Waardasie met werklike data word in die finale deel aangebied.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/49949
This item appears in the following collections: