Political risk analysis and economic reform : investing in the Indian electricity sector

Duncan, Stewart M. (2003-12)

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2003.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The definition of political risk and the methodology of its assessment have changed since the inception of the discipline midway through the last century. This assignment assesses the usefulness of a new quantitative technique that uses political constraints and the policy preferences of political actors to construct a measure of political risk. Integrating the findings of the resulting Political Constraints Index with an analysis of the political economy of the Indian Electricity Sector, the assignment demonstrates that, contrary to the original interpretations of the index, high levels of political constraints and political competition may propagate a disabling policy regime and be detrimental to the investor, despite the stated commitment of the incumbent government to policy reform. The implication of these findings is that, to avoid incorrect interpretation, the Political Constraint Index should be augmented by a comprehensive qualitative assessment of the industry in question.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die definisie van politieke risiko en die metodologie om dit te ontleed, het verander sedert die onstaan van hierdie dissipline gedurende die middel van die laaste eeu. Hierdie opdrag ontleed die nuttigheid van 'n nuwe kwantitatiewe tegniek wat die politieke beperkings en beleidsvoorkeure van politieke rolspelers gebruik om 'n maatstaf van politieke risiko te verskaf. Die opdrag se integrasie van die bevindinge van die resulterende Politieke Beperkings Indeks met 'n analise van die politieke ekonomie van die Indiese Elektrisiteits Sektor bewys dat, teenstrydig met oorspronklike interpretasies van die indeks, hoe vlakke van politieke beperkings en politieke kompetisie 'n deaktiveringsbeleid regime kan kweek wat nadelig is vir die belegger, ten spyte van die huidige regering se verklaarde toegewydheid tot beleidshervorming. Die implikasie van hierdie bevindinge is dat, om foutiewe interpretasie te vermy, die Politieke Beperkings Indeks verbeter moet word deur 'n omvattende kwalitatiewe ontleding van die verlangde industrie.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/49776
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