An evaluation of the Financial Mail's company results recommendations from 2 May 1997 to 31 October 1997

Maul, Holger (2002-03)

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2002.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Every investor that invests in JSE Securities Exchange listed shares wants to achieve optimum profits. Numerous tools are used to help investors and analysts to analyse buy signals, standard deviations, risk-adjusted returns and every possible piece of information that may lead to perfect recommendations. Despite all the problems and issues involved to make perfect recommendations, it seems as if some individuals achieve well above average results. There are no obvious reasons for the success they achieve. Often it may be ascribed to a combination of detailed technical analysis, market intelligence as well as gut-feel. This study evaluates the recommendations made by the analysts and quantifies the accuracy. Different scoring systems are used to evaluate the accuracy of the recommendations and a ranking of the analysts is compiled. Risk-adjusted returns are investigated in detail and are used in the calculations. The results of this study show that some analysts outperformed the rest by substantial margins.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Elke belegger wat in aandele op die JSE Sekuriteitebeurs belê, wil die maksimum moontlike wins maak. Verskeie modelle word gebruik om beleggers te help om koopseine, standaardafwykings, risiko-aangepaste winste en enige andere moontlike inligting te ontleed om sodoende betroubare aanbevelings te maak. Ten spyte van al die probleme wat dit moeilik maak om akkurate vooruitskatlings te maak, wil dit voorkom asof sekere individue heelwat beter vaar as die gemiddeld. Die sukses kan nie aan ooglopende aspekte toegeskryf word nie en dit berus meestal by 'n kombinasie van gedetaileerde tegniese analise, markintelligensie en "gut-feel". Hierdie studie is daarop toegespits om vooruitskattings van analiste te evalueer en die akkuraatheid van die aanbevelings te kwantifiseer. Verskeie punte stelsels word gebruik om die akkuraatheid van die aanbevelings te evalueer en 'n ranglys word opgestel na aanleiding van die resullate. Risiko aangepaste resultate word in detail ondersoek en word gebruik in die berekeninge. Die resultate van die navorsing dui daarop dat sekere ontleders aansienlik beter vaar as ander.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/49716
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