An economic evaluation of a bio-fuels industry in South Africa

Schuld, Renier A. (2006-12)

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2006.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The adoption of the White Paper on the promotion of Renewable Energy and clean fuels in 2003, opened the playing field for participants from other industries than the conventional petroleum, to participate in the fuel industry in South Africa. South Africa is a net importer of crude oil, which accounts for 92% of liquid fuels supply in South Africa. Although the country has significant coal reserves which can supply the country's demand for approximately 200 years, this energy source contributes significantly to CO, emissions. South Africa's participation in the Kyoto Protocol compels it to abide by its commitments to reduce these emissions between 2008 and 2012. The country's dependence on energy to fuel its growing economy, and the infiationary impact that oil imports has had on the country's economy, has prompted government to explore alternative sources of energy to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels and especially importing crude oil. As a result of this, and in an attempt to increase the potential for the successful implementation of ASGISA, government is exploring the feasibility of introducing an E10 fuel blend to the South African petrol blend. In view of th is, government has in it Accelerated and Sustainable Growth Initiative (ASGISA) targeted the development of the bio-fuels industry as an industrial sector that presents opportunities to create opportunities for sustainable growth and development. In view of this, the fiedgling fuel-ethanol industry (which is in its construction phase at the t ime of writing this report), faces lucrative prospects for the agricultural industry, especially maize- and ethanol producers. It is anticipated that the fuel-ethanol industry will create between 8000 and 10000 direct and indirect employment opportunities per plant. This will result in significant investment in rural areas as well. The creation of employment in the rural areas will prevent the large-scale urbanisation that has become a phenomenon in the past decade, as a result of dwindling agricultural industries. The production of ethanol presents the opportunity to earn foreign exchange, especially if the industry embarks on large scale export strategies. In addition to the export market, the local market for ethanol consist of the possible E10 petrol-blend and to supply Eskom with ethanol to fuel its gas turbine electricity generators at Acacia, Port Rex, as well as the anticipated generators at Atlantis and Mossel Bay. This document is a report on the investigation of the economic evaluation of a bio-fuel industry in South Africa. It will explore the current outlook for fossil fuel reserves, supplies and demand, both internationally and locally. It will report on the phenomenon of peak oil production and some opinions thereon . An investigation into the most probable biomass that can be used as feedstock for bio-fuel production will conducted. In this regard, specific investigation into maize, sugar cane (for fuelethanol) and Jatropha eureas (for bio-diesel) will be conducted. The report will explore the most efficient ethanol production processes, for both maize- and sugar-to-ethanol production, with the weight of the document to be attributed to the economic impact that the adoption of the fuel-ethanol programme

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die publisering van die Witskrif oor die promosie van hernieubare energiebronne en skoon brandstowwe in 2003, het die speelveld vir deelname aan die brandstof industrie oopgemaak vir rolspelers buiten die konvensionele petroleum maatskappye. Suid-Afrika is 'n netto invoerder van ru-olie en het in 2004 ongeveer 92% van die totale vloeibare brandstowwe ingevoer. Alhoewel die land aansienlike steenkool reserwes het om te voorsien in die aanvraag vir die volgende ongeveer 200 jaar, dra hierdie energiebron aansienlik by tot die koolstofdioksied vrystellings. Suid-Afrika se deelname aan die Kyoto Protokol van 1998, dwing die land om te voldoen aan die ondernemings wat gemaak is om hierdie koolstofdioksied vrystellings te verminder tussen 2008 en 2012. Die land se afhanklikheid van energiebronne om groei te stimuleer, asook die inflasionistiese effek van olie invoere op die ekonomie, het die regering genoop om alternatiewe bronne van energie te ondersoek sodat die afhanklikheid van olie verminder kan word. Uiteenlopend hiervan en om die implementering van ASGISA te stimuleer, ondersoek die regering tans die moontlikheid om 'n E10 petrol vermenging in die petrol formule te spesifiseer. Uit die oogpunt van ASGISA (Accelerated and Sustainable Growth Initiative) van Suid-Afrika, het die regering die ontwikkeling van die bio-brandstowwe industrie geoormerk om geleenthede te skep vir volhoubare ontwikkeling en groei. Met die oog hierop, voorspel die etanol bedryf, wat ten tyde van die skryf van hierdie verslag nog in kontruksie was, winsgewende potensiaal vir die landboubedryf, veral mielie produsente. Dit word verwag dat die etanol bedryf tussen ongeveer 8000 en 10000 direkte en indirekte werksgeleenthede sal skep, veral in die landelike gebiede. Dit sal grotendeels bydra tot die voorkoming van die voortslepende ontvolking van die platteland wat oor die afgelope jare 'n verlammende effek op plattelandse gebiede gehad het. Dit word ook voorsien dat daar aansienlike belegging in die platteland sal plaasvind en al hierdie faktore sal bydra tot die voorkoming van verstedeliking . Die etanol bedryf skep die geleentheid om buitelandse valuta te genereer, veral as die industrie op uitvoere gaan konsentreer. Indien 'n plaaslike mark beoog word , sal die implementering van die E10 vermenging 'n besliste mark skep. 'n Alternatiewe mark wat ondersoek kan word, en wat groot geleentheid skep, is Eskom, wat tans ingevoerde diesel verbruik om hul gas turbine krag opwekkers by Acacia en Port Rex van brandstof te voorsien . Indien die beoogde turbines by Atlantis en Mosselbaai gebou word, sal die mark vir plaaslike etanol verdubbel. Hierdie dokument is 'n verslag oor die ondersoek wat gedoen is na die lewensvatbaarheid van 'n brandstof etanol bedryf in Suid-Afrika. Dit berig oor die huidige uitkyk oor die fossiel brandstof reserwes in die wereld en plaaslik. Dit opper die vraagstuk oor piek olie produksie fenomeen wat uiteenlopende debate ontketen het. Die verslag dek die waarskynlike bronne van biomassa wat aangewend kan word in die produksie van etanol, met spesifieke verwysing na mielies, suikerriet en Jatropha curcas. Die mees effektiewe produksie metodes word verder ondersoek wat van toepassing is op beide mielies en suikerriet. Die mees relevante deeI van die verslag is die ondersoek na die ekonomiese impak wat die industrie op die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie mag hê, waarna die nodige gevolgtrekkings en aanbevelings gemaak sal word.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/21979
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