The effect of generic medicine competition on the market share growth and pricing of originator brand medicine in the South African private pharmaceutical market
Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2011.
This study analyses the effects of generic medicine competition on the market share growth and pricing of originator brand medicine in the South African private pharmaceutical market. The study is based on five years (2005 to 2011) of IMS Health market share data for 39 originator brand drugs that have been exposed to competition from generic substitutes from 2001. The results show that, for all the drug molecules included in the study pooled together, the price of an originator brand medicine relative to the weighted average price of its generics has a significant negative impact on the change of its market share. Results for the molecules pooled according to anatomical classes, as well as each molecule separately, show that in four out of the nine classes represented in the study and nine out of the 39 molecules the relative price of the originator brand medicine had a significant negative impact on its change in market share. The manufacturers and marketers of generic medicines would be well advised to offer their medicines at significantly discounted prices compared to the originator brands, as the results suggest that the market penetration of the generic product may depend heavily on the price the generics are offered at. Investigations into the prices of the originator brands in relation with the number of generic equivalents in the market show that the number of generics available in a specific market has a significant positive impact on the relative price of originators, thereby making originators relatively more expensive compared with their generic competitors, while at the same time the results show that the absolute price of the originator brand medicines declines as the number of generic equivalents in the market increases. This indicates that, from a policy perspective, reducing the barriers to entry for generic medicine once originator patents expire may have a significant role to play in reducing the cost of pharmaceutical drugs in the South African market.