The future of older people in HIV/AIDS prevalent South Africa
Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2011.
This research document seeks to outline the future of older people in HIV/AIDS-prevalent South Africa. The research report examined literature which assisted the researcher in understanding how older people‘s lives and standard of living has evolved due to HIV/AIDS in South Africa. The research report was focused on providing answers to the following questions: i) What are the factors that need to be addressed now to ensure a favourable future for older people in HIV/Aids prevalent South Africa? ii) What are the institutions responsible for ensuring a favourable future for older people in HIV/AIDS prevalent South Africa? The questions will be focused on 2040, from 2010 to 2040. In order to address the abovementioned questions the researcher made use of scenario planning supported by the biomatrix theory approach and causal layered analysis. Firstly, through input from the literature review and scenario team interviews, analysis of drivers of change was conducted. This reviewed secondary literature that was sourced from reports, case studies, publications and others. The focus of this paper was based on older people, HIV/AIDS and the future. Factors including change in family structure, care and respect for older people, government social grant, participation in policy formulation, education levels, employment and poverty were identified as driving forces that have an impact on older people in HIV/AIDS prevalent South Africa. Secondly, Biomatrix theory was used to map the problems associated with the driving forces mentioned above. This mapping was also used to prioritise the level of impact on problems associated with the driving forces. Two driving forces with the highest impact and uncertainties were identified as care and respect for older people as well as participation in policy formulation. A scenario quadrant was also mapped. The latter lead to four scenarios: The silver queen bee, the red queen bee, the black queen bee, and lastly the golden queen bee. Possible ideals and strategies were discussed as findings with a focus on the two key drivers of change that lead to the four alternative futures. Lastly, summary and recommendations are discussed in the final chapter.