An empirical analysis of the relationship between operating cash flows and dividend changes in South Africa

Baard, Roelof Stephanus (2008-03)

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2008.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between dividend changes and operating cash flows in South Africa. Previous studies on the relationship in developed markets established that the main determinants of dividend changes are current year earnings and preceding dividend levels. The dividend changes-operating cash flows relationship was successfully studied in the developing market of Nigeria. The procedures and arguments used in this study were largely based on studies undertaken by Charitou and Vafeas (1998) and Adelegan (2003). The relationship was studied by selecting 60 companies that have been listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange from 1990 to 2005. A multiple regression model was used in this study to investigate the relationship between dividend changes and operating cash flows. The multiple regression results revealed that there is a significant positive relationship between dividend changes and operating cash flows. The results also revealed that there is a significant positive relationship between dividend changes and profits after tax and a significant negative relationship between dividend changes and the previous year's dividend yield. Relative to profit after tax and operating cash flows, the previous year's dividend yield has the strongest relationship with dividend changes. The strength of the variables in explaining dividend changes has changed over time. In the study, the multiple regression equation was estimated for three different periods, 1990 to 1993, 1994 to 1999 and 2000 to 2005. In the period 1994 to 2005, operating cash flows showed a significant positive relationship with dividend changes. In all three periods, the previous year's dividend yield showed a significant negative relationship with dividend changes and was also relative to profit after tax and operating cash flows, the strongest determinant of dividend changes in all three periods. In the period 1990 to 1999, profits after tax had a significant positive relationship with dividend changes. The results showed that operating cash flows, over time explain more of dividend changes than profits after tax. The study also investigated factors that have the potential to influence the relationship between dividend changes and operating cash flows. The multiple regression results revealed that growth prospects, levels of leverage and the size of a company did not significantly influence the dividend changes-operating cash flows relationship.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van hierdie studie was om die verwantskap tussen dividendveranderinge en kontant uit bedryfsaktiwiteite te ondersoek. Vorige studies oor die verwantskap wat met betrekking tot ontwikkelende markte onderneem is, het bevind dat die hoof determinante van dividendveranderinge die huidge jaar se verdienste en die voorafgaande jaar se dividendopbrengste is. Die dividendveranderinge-kontant uit bedryfsaldiwiteite verwantskap is suksesvol bestudeer in die ontwikkelende mark van Nigerië. Die prosedures en argumente wat gebruik is in hierdie studie is hoofsaaklik op die studies van Charitou en Vafeas (1998) en Adelegan (2003) gebaseer. Die verwantskap is bestudeer deur 60 maatskappye te selekteer wat vanaf 1990 tot 2005 op die Johannesburg se Effektebeurs genoteerd was. 'n Meervoudige regressie model is in die studie gebruik om die verwantskap tussen dividendveranderinge en kontant uit bedryfsaktiwiteite te ondersoek. Die meervoudige regressieresultate het gewys dat daar 'n positiewe betekenisvolle verwantskap tussen dividend veranderinge en kontant uit bedryfsaktiwiteite is. Die resultate het ook gewys dat daar 'n positiewe betekenisvolle verwantskap is tussen dividendveranderinge en wins na belasting asook, 'n negatiewe betekenisvolle verwantskap tussen dividendveranderinge en die voorafgaande jaar se dividendopbrengs. Relatief tot wins na belasting en kontant uit bedryfsaktiwiteite, het die voorafgaande jaar se dividendopbrengste 'n sterker verwantskap met dividendveranderinge gehad. Die sterkte van die veranderlikes in die verduideliking van dividendveranderinge het met verloop van tyd verander. Die meervoudige regressie vergelyking is in die studie vir drie verskillende periodes geraam, naamlik vir 1990 tot 1993, 1994 tot 1999 en 2000 tot 2005. In die periode 1994 tot 2005 was daar 'n positiewe betekenisvolle verwantskap tussen dividendveranderinge en kontant uit bedryfaktiwiteite. Al drie periodes het 'n negatiewe betekenisvolle verwantskap tussen dividendveranderinge en die voorafgaande jaar se dividendopbrengs getoon. Die voorafgaande jaar se dividendopbrengs was ook relatief tot wins na belasting en kontant uit bedryfsaktiwiteite die sterkste determinant van dividendveranderinge in al drie periodes. Daar was 'n positiewe betekenisvolle verwantskap tussen dividendveranderinge en wins na belasting in die periode van 1990 to 1999. Die resultate toon dat kontant uit bedryfsaktiwiteite met verloop van tyd meer verklaar van dividendverandringe as wins na belasting. Die studie het ook faktore wat die verwantskap tussen dividendveranderinge en kontant uit bedryfsaktiwiteite potensieël kan beïnvloed, ondersoek. Die meervoudige regressieresultate het getoon dat groeimoontlikhede, hefboomfinansiering en die grootte van 'n maatskappy nie die verwantskap tussen dividendveranderinge en kontant uit bedryfsaktiwiteite betekenisvol beïnvloed nie.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/18154
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