Simulating the South African forestry supply chain

Laubscher, Jennifer Mignonne (2022-04)

Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2022.

Masters

Thesis

ENGLISH SUMMARY: The purpose of this study was to provide base simulation models that demonstrated some capabilities of discrete-event stochastic simulation when applied to the South African pulp- and saw timber supply chains from nursery- to mill-gate. The simulation models were designed to provide support for strategic decision-making by allowing scenario analysis through experimentation and bi-objective optimisation. A literature study was performed on various topics relating to the South African forestry industry, supply chain management and simulation modelling. This literature study included a discussion on various simulation software packages, from which one, namely Siemens Tecnomatix Plant Simulation was selected to be utilised in this study. To simplify the simulation modelling process two case studies were developed through stakeholder and subject-matter expert consultation. The case studies were converted into process ow diagrams, which could further be expanded into concept models. Thereafter, the simulation input data requirements were identi ed and the concept models could be translated into computerised versions in the chosen simulation software. The simulation models were built following a systematic and iterative approach. Final veri cation was done through structured model walk-throughs, error elimination and by performing entity tracing tests. Validation was done in consultation with project stakeholders and subject-matter experts, as well as through validation experimentation. After the simulation models were veri ed, validated and proven to be credible representations of the real-world pulpwood- and saw timber supply chains from nursery- to mill-gate, their experimental capabilities were demonstrated. The models were found to have a large combinatorial nature with regards to the number of experiments that can be performed, and exhibited the capability to perform \what-if" analysis and bi-objective optimisation.

AFRIKAANS OPSOMMING: Die doel van hierdie studie was om basis-vlak simulasie modelle te bou wat sommige van die vermo ens van diskrete-gebeurtenis stogastiese simulasie demonstreer, wanneer dit toegepas word op die Suid-Afrikaanse pulp- en saaghout voorsieningskettings (van die kwekery- tot meul hek). Dis simulasie modelle is ontwerp om ondersteuning te bied vir strategiese besluitneming en scenario analise, deur eksperimentering en bi-doelwit optimering te bevorder. 'n Literatuurstudie is gedoen om onderwerpe rakende die Suid-Afrikaanse bosbou industrie, voorsieningskettings en simulasie modellering te ondersoek. Hierdie literatuurstudie het ook 'n bespreking van verskillende simulasie sagteware pakkette ingesluit, waarvan een, naamlik Siemens Tecnomatix Plant Simulation, uitgewys is as die geskikte pakket vir hierdie studie. Om die proses van simulasie modellering te ondersteun is twee gevallestudies ontwerp in samewerking met die projek-belanghebbendes en vakkundiges. Die gevallestudies is omgeskakel in prosesvloeidiagramme, wat verder uitgebrei is na konsepmodelle. Daarna is die konsepmodelle gebruik om die simulasie-invoerdatavereistes te identi seer, asook om die modelle se vertalling na die gekose rekenaar pakket te vergemaklik. Die simulasie modelle is gebou deur 'n sistematiese en iteratiewe benadering te volg. Finale veri kasie van die modelle is gedoen deur gestruktureerd deur die modelle se programkode te \stap" en foute te verwyder, asook deur entiteitvolgingstoetse. Validasie is gedoen in oorleg met die projek-belanghebbendes en vakkundiges, asook deur die uitvoer van validasie-eksperimente. Nadat die simulasie modelle geveri eer, gevalideer en as geloofwaardige voorstellings van die werklike pulphout- en saaghout verska ngskettings bewys is, kon hulle eksperimentele vermo ens gedemonstreer word. Daar is gevind dat die modelle 'n groot kombinatoriese aard het met betrekking tot die hoeveelheid eksperimente wat uitgevoer kan word. Die modelle het ook die vermo e getoon om \wat-as"-analise en bi-doelwit optimering uit te voer.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/124516
This item appears in the following collections: