Developing a transmission power grid maintenance budget decision support system

Geldenhuis, Lester (2021-03)

Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2021.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Sustainable value adding in asset-intensive organisations requires well-coordinated activities between tangible and intangible assets at all stages of the asset life cycle. One of the core asset management principles is ensuring alignment between organisational objectives and management decisions. Operational and maintenance decision-making are regarded as crucial in maintaining business sustainability. Decision-making is a fundamental management output and a critical action to reach business imperatives. Many asset-intensive power grid companies across the globe are experiencing a rapidly changing supply and demand landscape driven by technical,socio-economic and environmental factors. Existing business models are challenged to maintain financial viability whilst ensuring acceptable levels of supply in a highly regulated environment. Business budget reforms are driven by the need to restrict expenditure and to improve financial performance. Traditionally businesses employ incremental budget models during times of fiscal constraint, where equal cutbacks are implemented across all levels without focus on specific expenditures(Ibrahim, 2017). This creates conflict at the operational level where maintenance managers are required to make decisions that impact on short-term expenditure which, in turn, impact medium-to long-term power system performance. Operational and maintenance management decisions are often characterised by human judgement, discussions and previous experience where action is required despite limitations ontime and knowledge. The study presents a transmission power grid Maintenance Budget Decision Support System (MBDSS) that will support maintenance managers in delivering related management decisions, considering essential information that is aligned to the current business objectives. The model and process are based on existing maintenance prioritisation models that consider the criticality of preventive maintenance tasks as well as maintenance expenditure risks.The study investigates the apparent and latent relationships between maintenance planning, budget expenditure and grid performance in order to establish relevant criteria and limitations in developing the MBDSS. The model uses the risk priority number (RPN) method in conjunction with the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) technique. AHP is used to determine the weights for the different probability and severity criteria. The model improves on existing prioritisation models by modifying the constant failure rate data of equipment taking into account the health and work-rate of the equipment in calculating the failure probability. The model is validated by following the Borenstein decision support system validation process.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Volhoubare waardetoevoeging in bate-intensiewe ondernemings verggoed gekoördineerde aktiwiteite tussen tasbaar en nie-tasbare batesoorte. Hierdie koördinasie moet regdeur die lewensiklus van die onderskeie batesplaasvind. Een van die kern batebestuursbeginsels is om te verseker dat bestuursbesluite belynis met besigheidsdoelwitte. Operasionele-en instandhoudingsbesluite is van kardinale belang om besigheidsvolhoubaarheid te handhaaf. Besluitneming is ‘n fundamentele bestuursuitset en ‘n kritieke aksie om besigheidsdoelwitte te bereik. Bate-intensiewe kragnetwerkondernemings wêreldwydervaar ‘n vinnig veranderende omgewing na die vraag en aanbod van elektrisiteit. Hierdie tendens word gedryf deur tegniese, sosio-ekonomiese en omgewingsfaktore. Die finansiële lewensvatbaarheid van bestaande sakemodelle word getoets terwyl aanvaarbare elektrisiteitsvoorsieningsvlakke verseker moet word in 'n strenggereguleerde omgewing. Die hervorming van sakebegrotings word gedryf deur die behoefte om uitgawes te beperk en om finansiële prestasie te verbeter. Tans gebruik besighede tradisionele differensiaal toenemende begrotingsmodelle, waar besnoeiing eweredig oor alle vlakke geïmplementeer word sonder om te fokus op spesifieke uitgawes. Dit skep konflik deurdat daar van bedryfsbestuurders verwag word om besluite te maak rakende korttermyn uitgawes waar dit dienooreenkomstig medium-tot langtermyn stelselprestasies beïnvloed. Operasionele en instandhoudingsbestuursbesluite word gekenmerk deur menslike oordeel,besprekings en vorige ervaringwaar optrede vereis word ten spyte van tydsbeperkings en gebrekkige kennis. Die studie stel ‘n Bedryfsbegroting Besluitsteunstelsel (BBS) voorwat van toepassing is op ‘n verspreidingskragstelsel. Hierdie BBS word ontwerp om bedryfsbestuurders te ondersteun in besluitneming, inaggenome noodsaaklike inligting wat verband hou met huidige besigheidsdoelwitte. Die model en proses word gebaseer op bestaande instandhoudingsprioriteitsmodelle wat die noodsaaklikheid van voorkomende instandhoudingstake oorweeg, sowel as risiko’s verbonde aan bedryfsuitgawes. Die studie ondersoek die sigbare en onderliggende verwantskappe tussen instandhoudingsbeplanning, begrotingsuitgawes en stelselprestasie om sodoende die relevante kriteria and stelselbeperkinge van die BBS te bepaal. Die model gebruik die risiko prioriteitssyfer (RPS) metode tesame met die analitiese hiërargie proses (AHP)tegniek. AHP word gebruik omdie onderskeie gewigte van die verskillende waarskynlikheid en felheidskriteria te bepaal. Die model verbeter op bestaande prioriteitsmodelle deur die konstantefalingstempo data van toerusting aan te pas om sodoende die huidige toestand en werkstempo van die toerusting in ag te neem in die berekening van die falingswaarskynlikheid. Die validasie van die model word gedoendeur die Borenstein Besluitsteunvalideringproses.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/109830
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