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Effectiveness of interventions targeting air travellers for delaying local outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2

dc.contributor.authorClifford, Samuelen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorPearson, Carl A. B.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorKlepac, Petraen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorVan Zandvoort, Kevinen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorQuilty, Billy J.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorCMMID COVID-19 working groupen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorEggo, Rosalind, M.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorFlasche, Stefanen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2020-05-17T04:33:18Z
dc.date.available2020-05-17T04:33:18Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.identifier.citationClifford, S. et al. 2020. Effectiveness of interventions targeting air travellers for delaying local outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2. Journal of Travel Medicine, taaa068, doi:10.1093/jtm/taaa068.
dc.identifier.issn1708-8305 (online)
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.1093/jtm/taaa068
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/108565
dc.descriptionCITATION: Clifford, S. et al. 2020. Effectiveness of interventions targeting air travellers for delaying local outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2. Journal of Travel Medicine, taaa068, doi:10.1093/jtm/taaa068.
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at https://academic.oup.com/jtm
dc.description.abstractBackground: We evaluated if interventions aimed at air travellers can delay local SARS-CoV-2 community transmission in a previously unaffected country. Methods: We simulated infected air travellers arriving into countries with no sustained SARS-CoV-2 transmission or other introduction routes from affected regions. We assessed the effectiveness of syndromic screening at departure and/or arrival & traveller sensitisation to the COVID-2019-like symptoms with the aim to trigger rapid self-isolation and reporting on symptom onset to enable contact tracing. We assumed that syndromic screening would reduce the number of infected arrivals and that traveller sensitisation reduces the average number of secondary cases. We use stochastic simulations to account for uncertainty in both arrival and secondary infections rates, and present sensitivity analyses on arrival rates of infected travellers and the effectiveness of traveller sensitisation. We report the median expected delay achievable in each scenario and an inner 50% interval. Results: Under baseline assumptions, introducing exit and entry screening in combination with traveller sensitisation can delay a local SARS-CoV-2 outbreak by 8 days (50% interval: 3-14 days) when the rate of importation is 1 infected traveller per week at time of introduction. The additional benefit of entry screening is small if exit screening is effective: the combination of only exit screening and traveller sensitisation can delay an outbreak by 7 days (50% interval: 2-13 days). In the absence of screening, with less effective sensitisation, or a higher rate of importation, these delays shrink rapidly to less than 4 days. Conclusion: Syndromic screening and traveller sensitisation in combination may have marginally delayed SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in unaffected countries.en_ZA
dc.format.extent17 pages
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherOxford University Press
dc.subjectCOVID-19 -- Transmissionen_ZA
dc.subjectCIVID-19 -- Preventionen_ZA
dc.subjectAir travel -- Risk assessmenten_ZA
dc.subjectAirline passenger medical screeningen_ZA
dc.subjectCommunicable diseases -- Transmissionen_ZA
dc.subjectMedical screeningen_ZA
dc.subjectStochastic modelsen_ZA
dc.titleEffectiveness of interventions targeting air travellers for delaying local outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2en_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
dc.description.versionPre-print
dc.rights.holderAuthors retain copyright


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