Demand forecasting for network capacity planning in electrical utilities – a review of existing methods considering the evolving technologies of the energy arena
CITATION: Breedt, J., Louw, L. & De Kock, I. H. 2018. Demand forecasting for network capacity planning in electrical utilities – a review of existing methods considering the evolving technologies of the energy arena. In SAIIE29 Proceedings, 24-26 October 2018, Spier, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
The original publication is available at https://conferences.sun.ac.za/index.php/saiie29/saiie29/schedConf/presentations
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Planning for sufficient energy resources in a country is of paramount importance to ensure sustainable development of the economy and prosperity of its citizens. In South Africa the national utility, Eskom, is tasked to create a balance between the electricity demand and the supply thereof. Forecasting the electricity load on the networks to supply the country demand becomes an important task to ensure that capacity planning does not constrain potential growth, and neither does it construct overinvestment to compromise feasibility of implementation. The landscape of energy utilization is currently experiencing rapid evolution in technology and poses significant challenges to the way the electricity demand forecast needs to be done. Technology is evolving to provide more efficient, cost effective and reliable alternative energy sources than the conventional methods used in the past. Improved electricity efficiency and user behavior plays a significant role in future electricity demand requirements. This paper provides a comparative literature review on current forecasting methodologies to provide insight to which of these methods can be utilized in the future. A set of requirements is concluded on to identify the most relevant and effective forecasting methodologies to improve accuracy on forecasting electricity demand into the technology advanced future.