Evaluating the impact of a change in the status of the US dollar as reserve currency
Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2016.
ENGLISH SUMMARY : The status of reserve currencies are seldom overtly debated. Where such debate occurs it is frequently undertaken by political economists, and a futures perspective is seldom included. The study argued that the impact of a potential change of status in the US dollar as the world’s preferred reserve currency could be better analysed through the use of Futures Studies tools and methodologies. To this end, the researcher employed several futures methods, including integral analysis, causal layered analysis, scenarios and backcasting methodologies to gain a more holistic understanding of the US dollar’s current position and the advantages the country enjoys due to its status as the world’s pre-eminent reserve currency. Four scenarios were developed presenting possible alternative futures and their impact on the world monetary order analysed. These scenarios were backcast in order to develop an understanding of the developments that would need to take place for these scenarios to come about. The study revealed that the concept of reserve currencies is fundamentally intertwined with the state of the current monetary world order, and that any change in status of the US dollar would have a deep impact on the shape of the monetary order of the future.
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