BREAKING THE MOULD: The Role of Scenarios in Shaping South Africa's Future
The story of South Africa's transiton in 1994 to a non-racial democracy has been told many times, principally from the perspective of the political forces for change. But many other factors were at work, over many years, which influenced not only the political outcome but also the economic philosophy of the new ANC government. This pioneering study explores one such set of factors, viz the ideas generated by three quite different privately initiated but publicly disseminated scenario exercises undertaken in the period 1985-1992. In doing so, and in locating the scenarios within the turbulent context of the times, it offers fresh and compelling insights into the transition as well as into the fierce contestation over political and economic ideas, which continues to the present day. The book goes beyond this. It draws on South Africa's unusually rich experience of scenario work to illuminate the circumstances in which the method can be fruitfully used as well as the key factors that must be taken into account in designing, conducting and communicating the project's output. And it points to the pitfalls if these matters are not properly addressed.