http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/712 Sun, 16 Jul 2017 02:56:22 GMT 2017-07-16T02:56:22Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/101163 Social gradients, early childhood education and schools performing above the demographic expectation: empirical insights into educational issues Kotze, Janeli ENGLISH SUMMARY : This dissertation exploits the wide variety of datasets available on the South African education system to consider select education issues. The purpose of this is to contribute relevant empirical research to inform current debates and discussions relating to issues and policies in the South African education system which might be entrenching the inequalities of the past and thereby impeding on future improvement. The first part of the dissertation provides a new perspective on within country educational inequality among different education systems by comparing data from seven Sub-Saharan countries and sixteen Latin-American countries. When comparing the effect of socio-economic status (SES) on education across countries, researchers have always been faced with a trade-off between the accuracy of the SES measure within countries and the comparability of the measure across countries. This has often caused measures of SES to be incorrectly used to compare relative wealth across different countries and contexts. This chapter sets forth a new methodology to adjust the traditional measures of SES and make them more comparable across countries and surveys. Furthermore, the comparable SES measure is applied to compare children in equally impoverished circumstances across countries, sub-samples and datasets to more accurately identify the most disadvantaged children across the world. More specifically this method will be applied to the SACMEQ (Sub-Saharan Africa) and SERCE (Latin America) education datasets to compare the educational outcomes of those students living under the $3.10 a day poverty line. Most strikingly, the comparison shows that Ugandan and Mozambican children living under the $3.10 a day poverty line achieve much higher educational outcomes than similarly poor children in middle-income countries such as South Africa and the Dominican Republic. Investment in Early Childhood Development (ECD) has the prospect of cultivating extraordinary potential within individuals and can assist in bridging the social equity gap from a very young age. Over the past decade Grade R has been the strongest policy lever used by the Department of Basic Education to early learning. The National Development Plan has, however, called for universal access to two years of early childhood development prior to entering Grade 1. Chapter three explores the merits of this proposal given the specific South African context. More specifically, this analysis intends to bring new information to bear on three matters. The first relates to the demand-side and aims to identifying participation trends among four- and five-year-olds. Moreover, an attempt is made to obtain a profile of those learners not attending any form of preschooling currently. The second objective is to consider the supply-side and aims to understand the policy space in which pre-Grade R will function, the quality and quantity of infrastructure already in place, and the expertise of ECD practitioners. Finally, the implementation of a universally accessible pre-Grade R within a constrained system and the requirements for ensuring that it will have a significant impact on those children most in need are discussed. Drawing on three uniquely constructed datasets using the 2012-2014 Universal Annual National Assessments (U-ANAs), the 2013 Verification ANA (V-ANA) and the 2011 School Monitoring Survey, the fourth chapter investigates the prevalence and performance of poor schools which manage to perform above the demographic expectation. Overall it is evident that only 5% of all Quintile 1 – 3 schools, serving only 4% of the learner population in Quintile 1 – 3 schools, manage to perform at an acceptable level. The study estimates that poor learners who attend these above average schools, gain up to a year of additional learning relative to their peers in weak performing schools. Finally the study shows that strong school management and governance and supportive bureaucratic accountability are associated with the higher performance observed in these schools.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Hierdie tesis maak gebruik van die wye verskeidenheid van datastelle wat beskikbaar is aangaande die Suid-Afrikaanse onderwysstelsel, om spesifieke kwessies met betrekking tot die onderwyskrisis te ondersoek. Die doel is om met behulp van relevante empiriese navorsing ’n bydra te lewer tot die huidige gesprekke oor die kwessies en beleidvorming in die Suid-Afrikaanse onderwysstelsel wat die ongelykhede van die verlede verder vasle, en sodoende vooruitgang belemmer. Die eerste gedeelte van die tesis lewer ‘n nuwe perspektief oor die ongelykhede in opvoedkundige uitkomstes wat bestaan in lande, deur die ongelykhede van sewe Sub-Sahara lande en sestien Latyn-Amerikaanse lande met mekaar te vergelyk. In die vergelyking van die verhouding tussen sosio-ekonomiese status (SES) en leerder-prestasie, het navorsers nog altyd met die keuse gesit tussen ‘n meer akkurate meting van SES of ‘n meer vergelykbare meting van SES. Hierdie keuse het gewoonlik gelei tot die ontoepaslike gebruik van SES om relatiewe rykdom te vergelyk tussen verskillende lande. Hierdie hoofstuk stel ‘n nuwe metode voor om die tradisionele meting van SES aan te pas sodat dit beide ‘n meer akkurate meting van rykdom binne in ‘n land sal verskaf, en meer vergelykbaar tussen lande sal wees. Die nuwe meting word toegepas om kinders te vergelyk wat van ewe verarmde omstandighede afkomstig is, maar in verskillende lande woon. Verder kan die meting ook gebruik word om kinders in verskillende datastelle met mekaar te vergelyk. Sodoende kan die mees gemarginaliseerde kinders in die wereld geidentifiseer word. Meer spesifiek word hierdie metode toegepas op die SACMEQ (Sub-Sahara Afrika) en SERCE (Latyn Amerika) datastelle om die opvoedkundige uitkomstes van die leerders wat onder die $3.10 ‘n dag broodlyn lewe te vergelyk. Die mees treffendste wat hier gevind is, is dat leerders wat onder die $3.10 ‘n dag broodlyn lewe in laer inkomste lande soos Uganda en Mosambiek, beter vaar as leerders van ewe arm omstandighede in middel inkomste lande soos Suid-Afrika en die Dominikaanse Republiek. Investering in vroee kinderontwikkeling het die vermoe om uitsonderlike potensiaal in individue te ontgin, en kan ‘n belangrike rol speel om die sosiale ongelykheidsgaping van ‘n jong ouderdom al te oorbrug. Oor die laaste dekade was Graad R gesien as die sterkste beleidshefboom wat gebruik was deur die Departement van Basiese onderwys om vroee kinderontwikkeling te beinvloed. Die Nasionale Ontwikkelingsplan stel egter voor dat alle kinders moet toegang kry tot twee verpligte jare van vroee kinderontwikkeling voordat hulle Graad 1 betree. Die derde hoofstuk oorweeg die meriete van hierdie voorstel gegewe die spesifieke Suid-Afrikaanse konteks. Meer spesifiek, hierdie analise poog om nuwe inligting na vore te bring rakende drie sake. Die eerste handel oor die vraag-kant en identifiseer die deelname/bywoningskoerse van vier- en vyf-jariges. ‘n Poging word ook aangewend om ‘n profiel vas te stel van die kinders wat geen vorm van voorskool bywoon nie. Die tweede doel is om die aanbod-kant te oorweeg, deur ‘n beter begrip te kry van die beleidsomgewing waarin Voor-Graad R sal funksioneer, die kwaliteit en hoeveelheid hulpbronne wat daar reeds beskikbaar is, en die bekwaamheid van die voorskoolse opvoeders. Laastens word die implementering van ’n universeel toeganklike Voor-Graad R in ‘n beperkte stelsel bespreek, veral met die doel om vas te stel watter vereistes daar is om te verseker dat Voor-Graad R die gewenste impak het op die kinders wat die meeste daarby kan baat. Deur gebruik gemaak van drie datastelle wat spesifiek saamgestel is uit die 2012-2014 “Annual National Assessments (ANA)”, die 2013 “Verification ANA” en die 2011 “School Monitoring Survey”, ondersoek die vierde hoofstuk die voorkoms en prestasie van arm skole wat dit regkry om bo verwagtinge te presteer. Dit blyk dat net 5% van alle kwintiel 1 – 3 skole, wat net 4% van die leerders in 1 – 3 skole bedien, dit regkry om teen ‘n aanvaarbare vlak te presteer. Hierdie studie beraam dat arm leerders wat hulle in hierdie bo-gemiddelde arm skole bevind tot ‘n volle jaar ekstra kan leer relatief tot ewe arm kinders wat swakker skole bywoon. Laastens wys hierdie studie dat sterk leierskap en bestuur in ‘n skool, asook ondersteuning deur burokratiese aanspreeklikheid, geassosieer kan word met die beter prestasie in hierdie skole. Thesis (DCom)-- Stellenbosch University, 2017. Wed, 01 Mar 2017 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/101163 2017-03-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/100828 The private credit market of the Cape Colony, 1673-1834: wealth, property rights, and social networks Swanepoel, Christie ENGLISH SUMMARY : Please refer to full text for abstract.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Raadpleeg teks vir opsomming. Thesis (DCom)-- Stellenbosch University, 2017. Wed, 01 Mar 2017 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/100828 2017-03-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/100183 Measuring social and economic mobility in South Africa: new approaches to well-known survey data concerns Zoch, Asmus ENGLISH SUMMARY : The aim of this dissertation is measuring economic and social mobility in South Africa. The work from this thesis shows that various problems with survey responses can produce misleading impressions of the South African labour market and of income dynamics. This highlights the importance of measuring variables of interest accurately and to carefully consider the ways in which unreliable responses can bias the results of conventional estimators. It will be demonstrated that even the most appropriate estimator and identification strategy can fail to yield unbiased estimates if important measurement issues are ignored. To address these shortcomings this thesis applies and adapts new approaches to remedy well-known survey data reliability concerns. The most important findings of the three chapters are as follows: First, in the context of high unemployment and weak labour market attachment for many South African youth, the formulation of survey questions matters and approaches commonly used to elicit reliable responses in developed countries cannot be assumed to work equally well. This is particularly true for subjective measures. Hence, answers to the traditional question on reservation wages may fail to provide meaningful answers. It appears that different formulations and ordering of the reservation wage question can trigger different cognitive processes in the respondent that elicit different answers. However, using a series of questions intended to elicit a more accurate response, the new reservation wage measure seems to be more internally consistent and the regression results to be in line with labour market search models. Second, this thesis shows that estimating the speed of convergence between the poorest and richest households using micro growth regressions without controlling for measurement error would overestimate income mobility significantly. Therefore, a newly developed GMM estimator was applied to four large national panel studies to obtain less biased β estimates. The findings of four large representative national panel studies from the USA, South Africa, Chile and Tanzania show that naïve OLS regression coefficients would overestimate the extent of income mobility by a factor of about 4-6. The hypothesis of no measurement error can be rejected for all the countries observed. While the data reliability for the US, Chile and Tanzania correspond to their levels of economic development, South Africa’s data reliability appears to be unexpectedly high. The nonparametric estimates also show that the speed of convergence varies over the income distribution and that income is more reliably captured for richer than for poorer households. Third, the relative importance of family, neighbourhood and school quality in explaining variation in socio- economic outcomes are evaluated. Using spatial merging techniques to combine different data sets, new school wealth quintiles have been created that predict individual learner and school outcomes more accurately than the old school quintiles. This chapter provides evidence of the importance of quality education in explaining university enrolment. In addition, there seem to be a significant premium for quality education in labour markets earnings regressions, which confirms the long-term importance of schooling.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Die doel van hierdie tesis is om die ekonomiese en sosiale mobiliteit in Suid-Afrika te meet. Die werk wat gedoen is, toon dat verskeie probleme met opname-response tot 'n wanindruk oor die Suid-Afrikaanse arbeidsmark en inkomste-dinamiek kan lei. Dit beklemtoon hoe belangrik dit is om die veranderlikes van belang akkuraat te meet, en om die maniere waarop onbetroubare response die uitkomste van konvensionele beramers kan beïnvloed, versigtig te oorweeg. Daar sal geïllustreer word dat selfs die mees toepaslike beraming- en identifikasiestrategie tot bevooroordeelde beramings kan lei wanneer belangrike metingskwessies verontagsaam word. Ten einde hierdie tekortkominge te bowe te kom, word nuwe en aangepaste benaderings in die studie gebruik om bekende betroubaarheidskwessies rakende opname-data uit die weg te ruim. Die belangrikste bevindinge van die drie hoofstukke is soos volg: Eerstens, in 'n omgewing waar baie Suid-Afrikaanse jongmense onderhewig is aan 'n hoë voorkoms van werkloosheid en swak koppeling aan die arbeidsmark, maak die formulering van opname-vrae saak. Daar kan nie aanvaar word dat metodes wat algemeen gebruik word om betroubare response in ontwikkelde lande te verkry, net so doeltreffend sal wees nie, veral in die geval van subjektiewe maatstawwe. Antwoorde op die tradisonele vraag oor reserwelone kan dus niksseggend wees. Dit kom voor asof die vraag, wanneer dit anders geformuleer of georganiseer word, aanleiding gee tot ander kognitiewe prosesse in die respondent, wat ander antwoorde ontlok. Deur 'n reeks vrae te gebruik wat daarop gemik is om 'n meer akkurate respons uit te lok, is die nuwe maatstaf vir reserwelone op die oog af intern meer konsekwent en die regressie-resultate in ooreenstemming met werksoekmodelle. Tweedens wys hierdie tesis dat inkomstemobiliteit aansienlik oorskat word by die beraming van konvergensiespoed tussen die armste en rykste huishoudings indien mikro-groeiregressies gebruik word sonder om metingsfoute in ag te neem. 'n Nuwe GMM-beramer is derhalwe op vier groot, nasionale paneelstudies toegepas om minder bevooroordeelde -beramings te kry. Die bevindinge van vier groot, verteenwoordigende paneelstudies in die VSA, Suid-Afrika, Chili en TanzaniG toon dat naïewe OLS- (Ordinary Least Squares) regressie-koëffisiënte die mate van inkomstemobiliteit met 'n faktor van 4-6 oorskat. Die hipotese van geen metingsfoute kan verwerp word in die geval van al die betrokke lande. Terwyl die betroubaarheid van die data in die geval van die VSA, Chili en TanzaniG ooreenstem met die vlak van hul ekonomiese ontwikkeling, lyk die databetroubaarheid van Suid-Afrika onverwags hoog. Die nie-parametriese beramings wys ook dat die konvergensiespoed met betrekking tot die inkomsteverspreiding wissel, en dat inkomste meer betroubaar weergegee word by ryker as by armer huishoudings. Derdens word die relatiewe belangrikheid van die gesin, die woonbuurt en die kwaliteit van die skool geGvalueer ten einde variasies in sosio-ekonomiese uitkomste te verklaar. Deur ruimtelike samesmeltingstegnieke te gebruik om verskilende datastelle te kombineer, is nuwe welvaartskwintiele vir skole geskep. Hierdie nuwe kwintiele voorspel individuele leerder- en skooluitkomste akkurater as die ou skoolkwintiele. Die bewys van hoe belangrik kwaliteitonderrig is, word verskaf wanneer universiteitsinskrywings verduidelik word. Dit kom boonop voor asof kwaliteitonderwys in arbeidsmarkte met verdienstefunksies sterk in aanvraag is. Dit bevestig die langtermyn belangrikheid van onderwys. Thesis (DPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2016. Thu, 01 Dec 2016 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/100183 2016-12-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/100153 An empirical analysis of poverty, inequality and the labour market in Malawi Gondwe, Anderson Sawira ENGLISH SUMMARY : This thesis is a consolidation of three related studies on Malawi. The first study contains spatial and temporal comparisons of poverty and inequality in Malawi using two non-monetary dimensions, namely an asset index and child nutritional status. Through stochastic dominance tests, the study establishes that poverty and inequality are unambiguously higher in rural areas, which contain 85% of the population, in the Southern region and among households headed by females. Results indicate that poverty has significantly declined over time and that the gains from growth have been pro-poor. We show that welfare does not vary much across regions and areas with respect to child nutritional status but there are large differences in asset poverty. Stunting is a bigger problem among children under the age of five than body wasting and being underweight. Econometric analysis shows that asset ownership is positively associated with household size, the age of household head and education attainment. Age dependency ratio and incidence of sickness are negatively associated with asset ownership. Multivariate analysis of child nutrition reveals that malnutrition first worsens before improving at some critical age. This is consistent with possible recovery found in some of the studies that track children over time. Also in accordance with some literature, we find that boys have weaker nutritional status than girls. The second study looks at the role of education in poverty reduction identified through the labour market. This study contributes to research on returns to education by including self-employment activities and non-farm business enterprises. Unlike previous studies, this study uses panel data which has many advantages, as acknowledged in the literature. We find large and positive returns to education in Malawi suggesting that education is a good investment. The returns increase with the levels of education. Interestingly, females have higher returns to education than males with similar skills. Since the Malawian labour market is not homogeneous, our analysis distinguishes between the formal and informal employment sectors. Furthermore, studying Malawi’s informal sector is important as it accounts for 78% of total employment. Our results show that education externalities exist and play an important role in non-farm enterprises. The findings are robust to sample selection and treatment of outliers. We further show that dealing with inconsistencies in the data helps improves the quality and reliability of the results. The third study applies spatial panel data econometric techniques to the study of migration and employment in Malawi. The study shows that the magnitudes of coefficients drop after taking into account spatial dependencies. This confirms that studies that fail to take into account the spatial effects tend to overstate the results. By matching geographical codes that are consistent over time, it is now feasible to integrate census data with other data for similar spatial analysis. The study further evaluates the impact of land reform policy on spatial migration and employment using a difference-in-difference estimation strategy. Results show that the policy has had significant effects on migration and employment patterns in Malawi.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Hierdie tesis is a konsolidasie van drie verwante studies oor Malawi. Die eerste studie ondersoek armoede en ongelykheid in Malawi oor tyd en ruimte heen deur twee nie-monetêre dimensies, naamlik 'n bate-indeks en die voedingstatus van kinders, te gebruik. Deur middel van stogastiese dominansietoetseword ondubbelsinnig getoon dat armoede en ongelykheid hoër is in landelike gebiede, wat 85% van die bevolking huisves, in die Suidelike streek en onder huishoudings met vroue as hoof van die huis. Resultate toon dat armoede beduidend afgeneem het en dat groei tot voordeel van die armes strek. Ons resultate toon weinig verskille in welsyn tussen streke en gebiede met betrekking tot die voeding status van kinders, maar groot verskille in bate-armoede . Vertraagde groei is 'n groter probleem by kinders onder die ouderdom van vyf jaar as kwyning en ondergewig. Ekonometriese ontleding toon dat batebesit positief verband hou met die grootte van die huishouding en die ouderdom en opvoedingsvlak van die hoof van die huishouding . Die ouderdom-afhanklikheidslas en die voorkoms van siekte hou negatief verband met bate-besit. Regressie-analise wys dat wanvoeding onder kinders eers met ouderdom toeneem voordat dit by hoër ouderdomme afneem, wat konsekwent is met die moontlikheid van herstel soos party studies wat kinders oor 'n tydperk volg bevind. Ook, in ooreenstemming met party studies, word bevind dat die voedingstatus van dogters beter is as dié van seuns. Die tweede studie bestudeer die rol van onderwys in die vermindering van armoede in die arbeidsmark. Deur die insluiting van selfwerksaamheidsaktiwiteite en nie-landbou sakeondernemings dra die studie by tot navorsing oor die voordele van opvoeding in Malawi. Anders as in vorige studies, gebruik hierdie studie paneeldata, wat baie voordele inhou, soos in die literatuur bevestig. Ons vind groot en positiewe opbrengste op onderwys, wat daarop dui dat dit 'n goeie belegging is. Opbrengste neem toe met vlakke van onderwys. Interessant genoeg, ervaar vroue hoër opbrengste op belegging in onderwys as mans met dieselfde vaardighede. Aangesien die arbeidsmark in Malawi nie homogeen is nie, tref ons analise ‘n onderskeid tussen die formele en informele indiensnemingsektore. Dit belangrik om Malawi se informele sektor in ag te neem, aangesien dit 78% van die totale indiensneming uitmaak. Ons resultate wys dat daar eksternaliteite van onderwys bestaan wat 'n belangrike rol speel in nie-landbou ondernemings. Ons resultate is robuust virsteekproefseleksie en die hantering van uitskieters. Die uitstryk van data-onreëlmatighede dra tot 'n verbetering in die kwaliteit en betroubaarheid van die resultate by. Die derde studie pas ruimtelike paneeldata ekonometriese tegnieke toe op migrasie en indiensneming in Malawi. Die grootte van koëffisiënte neem af as ruimtelike afhanklikhede in ag geneem word. Dit bevestig dat studies wat nalaat om ruimtelike aspekte in berekening te bring geneig is om effekte te oorskat. Deur konsekwente geografiese kodes oor tyd te verbind is dit nou moontlik om sensusdata met ander data te integreer vir verdere ruimtelike analise. Die studie evalueer ook die uitwerking van die grondhervormingsbeleid op ruimtelike migrasie en indiensneming deur die gebruik van 'n verskil-in-verskille metodeevalueer. Die resultate dui daarop dat hierdie beleid 'n beduidende uitwerking op migrasie en werkloosheid in Malawi het. Thesis (DCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2016. Thu, 01 Dec 2016 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/100153 2016-12-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/100139 The open door of learning – access restricted: school effectiveness and efficiency across the South African education system Shepherd, Debra Lynne No abstract available.; Geen opsomming beskikbaar. Thesis (DCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2016. Thu, 01 Dec 2016 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/100139 2016-12-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/100101 An institutional assessment of the role of sovereign wealth funds in managing resource revenues Rietveld, Malan ENGLISH SUMMARY : This dissertation studies the contribution of sovereign wealth funds to the management of fiscal revenues derived from the extraction of natural resources. The literature on the “resource curse” has increasingly identified the institutional and political-economic foundations of the observed cross-country variation in the management of resource revenues. This literature has found the quality of general (or “meta”) institutions – such as the rule of law, democracy, government accountability and low levels of corruption – to be a critical differentiating factor in determining the success and failure of resource revenue management. The growing consensus around this argument – particularly the recent emphasis on “initial institutions” (the institutional quality at the time of resource discovery) – is noteworthy given the dismissal of the importance of institutions in the early resource-curse literature. From a policy perspective, however, a more productive line of enquiry pertains not to institutions at the general level, but to institutional responses to political-economy problems directly related to the management of resource revenues. Using the tools of institutional economics, the dissertation analyses the governance of sovereign wealth funds and the fiscal frameworks that accompany them. An evaluation of leading sovereign wealth funds and their fiscal rules is presented, as well as an empirical assessment of the impact of various fiscal rules in a number of illustrative country cases. The full embrace of the sovereign wealth fund model requires an often-elaborate institutional infrastructure to govern the policies and operations of independent operational investment authorities tasked with managing the assets. The dissertation therefore assesses the institutional arrangements between the owners and managers of the sovereign wealth fund, and a set rule-based investment policies through which to manage the principal-agent relationship established by the delegation of authority to an independent investment manager. It is contended that sovereign wealth funds can address a number of these specific political-economy and institutional problems, even in the context of relatively poor general institutions. A central argument advanced in the dissertation is that sovereign wealth funds alone have limited effectiveness, and that they should therefore form part of a broader fiscal framework that is rule based, constraining and countercyclical. The model of institutional reform developed here can be described as incremental or piecemeal. Considerable attention is paid to “second-best institutions”, particularly in the areas of fiscal rules and asset allocation, as intermediate steps towards more complex institutional arrangements.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Hierdie proefskrif ondersoek die bydrae van sowereine welvaartfondse tot die bestuur van fiskale inkomste uit die ontgunning van natuurlike hulpbronne. Die literatuur aangaande die “hulpbronvloek” indentifiseer toenemend die institusionele en politiek-ekonomiese grondslag van die variasie tussen lande in terme van die bestuur van hulpbron-inkomste. Hierdie literatuur dui toenemend op die kwaliteit van algemene (of “meta”) institusies – die oppergesag van die reg, demokrasie, publieke verantwoording, en lae vlakke van korrupsie – as ‘n kritiese onderskeidende faktor in die sukses en mislukking rondom die bestuur van hulpbron inkomstes. Die groeiende konsensus rondom hierdie argument - veral die onlangse klem op die gehalte van institusies ten tyde van hulpbron-ontdekking) – is opmerklik gegewe die ontslag van die belangrikheid van institusies in die vroeë literatuur. Vanuit 'n beleidsoogpunt is 'n meer produktiewe lyn van ondersoek egter een wat betrekking het op spesifieke institusionele reaksies tot politiek-ekonomiese probleme wat direk verband hou met die bestuur van hulpbron inkomste. Hierdie proefskrif gebruik die lens van institusionele ekonomie om die bestuur van soewereinewelvaart fondse en hul fiskale raamwerke te ontlleed. ‘n Bespreking van vooraanstande soewereine welvaartfondse en hul fiskale reëls word aangebied, sowel as 'n empiriese evaluering van die impak van verskillende fiskale reëls in 'n aantal lande. Die volledige “soewereine welvaartfonds-model” vereis ‘n dikwels-omvattende institusionele raamwerk rondom die beleid en bestuur van onafhanklike owerhede wat belas word met die belegging van die fonds se bates. Die proefskrif beoordeel vervolgens die institusionele reëlings tussen eienaars en bestuurders van soewereine welvaartfondse, en die rol 'n reël-gebaseerde beleggingsbeleid in die bestuur van hierdie verhouding. Dit word in hierdie proefskrif aangevoer dat soewereine welvaartfondse 'n aantal van hierdie spesifieke politiek-ekonomie en institusionele probleme kan aanspreek, selfs in die konteks van relatief swak algemene institusies. ‘n Sentrale argument wat aangevoer word is dat soewereine welvaartfondse alleen 'n beperkte effektiwiteit het, en dat hulle dus gesien word as deel van ‘n breër fiskaleraamwerk wat reëlgebaseerde, beperkende en anti-siklies is. Die model van institusionele hervorming wat hier ontwikkel word kan beskryf word as ‘n inkrementele of geleidelike proses. Aansienlike aandag word geskenk aan die konsep van “tweede-beste instellings”, veral op die gebied van fiskale reëls en beleggingsstrategie, as intermediêre stappe in die rigting van meer komplekse institusionele strukture. Thesis (DCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2016. Thu, 01 Dec 2016 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/100101 2016-12-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/100086 The assessment and improvement of the health status of vulnerable and low income individuals in South Africa: an analysis using quantitative and experimental methods Rossouw, Laura ENGLISH SUMMARY : More than two decades after the end of apartheid, inequalities in health across socioeconomic subgroups are still a pervasive and persistent trend. South Africa also faces a high burden of disease which is disproportionate to its level of economic development. This dissertation contains three chapters on the contribution of demand-side factors to South Africa’s health burden, focusing on the health perceptions and eventual health choices of vulnerable individuals. Vulnerable individuals assessed in this dissertation include the income and wealth poor and, in particular, women living in low-resource areas with limited access to sexual and reproductive health services. Evidence is provided on innovative interventions aimed at improving the health-seeking behaviour and health outcomes of these individuals. Chapter two of the dissertation calculates the impact of reporting differences on the accurate measurement of health inequalities by wealth status. The analysis is performed by benchmarking the reporting behaviour of individuals using anchoring vignettes. A statistically significant difference in the reporting behaviour by wealth status is found, which will lead to an underestimation of health inequalities to the disadvantage of the poor. Chapter three explains how a package intervention to improve the health-seeking behaviour of pregnant women living in a low-resource area in the Western Cape was designed, implemented and tested. The results from a randomized controlled trial show that a community health worker programme and an incentive jointly led to a statistically significant improvement in the timing and frequency of antenatal care-seeking behaviour. The impact of the intervention on behaviour change is explored by measuring differences in the preferences for care. This heterogeneity in preferences for antenatal care is measured by looking at differences in time preferences and prioritization. The intervention also led to a statistically significant reduction in maternal depressive symptoms and a statistically significant improvement in the intention to exclusively breastfeed for six months. Lastly, the fourth chapter considers the cost-efficiency of two alternative approaches to providing women with better access to urine pregnancy tests. Even though having access to these tests have been linked to improved timing of healthcare-seeking behaviour, the availability and acceptability of test distribution at public health facilities is of poor quality. Two approaches, namely distribution at a mobile health facility and door-to-door distribution, are compared. Door-to-door distribution is found to be a more cost-effective approach. The dissertation is aimed at establishing a better understanding of the demand-side of health, the factors driving health-seeking behaviour and the factors affecting health reporting.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Meer as twee dekades na die val van apartheid is gesondheidsongelykhede steeds ‘n omvattende en blywende tendens in Suid-Afrika. Suid-Afrika sukkel met die teenwoordigheid van ‘n hoë siektelas wat buite verhouding is tot Suid-Afrika se vlak van ontwikkeling. In hierdie proefskrif word die vraagkant verwante faktore as bydraers tot Suid-Afrika se gesondheidslas ondersoek deur te fokus op gesondheidspersepsies en die gesondheidskeuses van kwesbare individue. Die kwesbare individue wat in hierdie proefskrif geanaliseer word sluit groepe in wat inkomste en welvaart arm is. Daar word spesifiek gefokus op vroue wat in lae-inkomste gebiede woon en beperkte toegang tot seksuele en reproduktiewe gesondheidsdienste het. In dié proefskrif word daar ook navorsing aangebied oor innoverende intervensies wat daarop gemik is om die gesondsheidsoptrede en gesondheidsuitkomstes van bogenoemde subgroepe te verbeter. In die tweede hoostuk word die impak van verskille in rapporteringsoptrede op die akkurate meting van gesondheidsongelykhede tussen groepe van verkillende welvaart gemeet. Statistiese vinjettes word gebruik om individue se gesondsrapportering te anker en te vergelyk. ‘n Statisties beduidende verskil word gevind in die rapporteringsoptrede van verskeie welvaartgroepe. Daar word ook gevind dat dit sal lei tot ‘n onderskatting van die gesondheidsverskille tussen welvaartgroepe, tot die nadeel van die armstes. In hoofstuk 3, word die ontwerp en implementering van ‘n multi-komponent intervensies beskryf en word die impak daarvan op die gesondheidsoptrede van lae-inkomste swanger vroue in die Wes-Kaap getoets. ‘n Ewekansigbeheerde proef is ingespan om die impak te meet. Die resultate toon dat ‘n gemeenskapswerkerprogram en insentief gesamentlik swanger vrouens kan motiveer om vroeër en meer gereeld antenatale sorg te besoek. Die bevinding is statisties beduidend. Die impak van die intervensie op die verandering in gesondheidsoptrede word gemeet deur die heterogeniteit van individue se voorkeure te analiseer. ‘n Poging word aangewend om vrouens se heterogene voorkeure vir antenatale sorg te verstaan deur te kyk na die gewig wat hulle op huidige, teenoor toekomstige, voordele en kostes plaas. Heterogene voorkeure word ook bestudeer deur te meet of vroue anders reageer op die intervensie indien hulle oorweldig word deur hulle daaglikse pligte, en dus besoeke aan antenatale sorg uitstel. In die laaste hoofstuk word die koste-effektiwiteit van twee alternatiewe benaderings tot die verspreiding van urine swangerskaptoetste bereken. Die beperkte literatuur dui aan dat vroue wat toegang het tot swangerskaptoetse meer geneig is om vroeër sorg te besoek. Ten spyte van die literatuur is dié toetse weinig beskikbaar by openbare gesondheidsfasiliteite. In hierdie hoofstuk word die koste-effektiwiteit van twee alternatiewe benaderings ondersoek, naamlik deur-tot-deur verspreiding en verspreiding deur ‘n mobiele uitreikkliniek. Die bevindings dui daarop dat deur- tot-deur verspreiding oor die algemeen meer koste-effektief is. Die proefskrif is daarop gemik om die vraagkant van gesondheid beter te verstaan, asook om vas te stel watter faktore affekteer gesondheidsrapportering en gesondheidsoptrede. Thesis (DCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2016. Thu, 01 Dec 2016 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/100086 2016-12-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/100085 Firm productivity, international trade and competition: using micro data to examine the dynamics of South African firms Naughtin, Tasha Lynn ENGLISH SUMMARY : Exports matter for economic growth. Exporting is associated with higher levels of employment, innovation, and investment. The South African government recognises the role of exports in stimulating the economy as evident in the New Growth Path, the National Exporter Development Programme, and the Medium-Term Strategic Framework 2014-2019. Despite this, relatively little is known about the dynamics of actual exporting firms in South Africa. Existing South African literature is limited due to the lack of access to comprehensive firm-level panel data. This thesis overcomes this by analysing two unique sources of substantial, detailed data on South African firms over time obtained from official government sources. This is one of the first instances in which data of this kind has been available for analysis in South Africa, and therefore it enables this thesis to study the South African exporting environment at the level of detail seen in the international literature. Firstly, this thesis re-examines the ‘stylised facts’ of exporting in the case of South Africa in more detail. In contrast to the international literature, existing South African research concludes that exporters are, in general, no more productive than non-exporters. A number of possible explanations for this missing productivity premium have been suggested in the literature, however given the previous lack of sufficient firm-level data over time, few of these explanations have been adequately tested. This thesis is now able to test some of these explanations by making use of the two official firm-level datasets. It finds that both the nature of the data used in previous studies, as well as the homogeneous treatment of exporters, play a significant role in hiding South African exporters’ productivity premium. Secondly, this thesis employs a relatively novel unsupervised machine learning technique to test the robustness of the traditional classification of firms and exporters. Research using firm-level data usually classifies firms, and exporters, based on a priori assumptions. Firms are generally grouped by size, export participation, destination and products and correlations are reported based on these classifications. This study reverses the process through letting the data identify clusters. It uses cluster analysis techniques to identify classifications of South African manufacturing firms a posteriori. The findings highlight, among other things, the usefulness of exploratory techniques such as clustering for identifying potential heterogeneity among firms, particularly within large firm-level datasets. Finally, the importance of identifying firm- and exporter-heterogeneity for policy purposes is illustrated. In particular, this thesis makes use of the substantial firm-level data, in conjunction with a natural experiment inherent in the South African tax legislature, to assess the impact of a specific tax incentive on small business investment and growth. The findings suggest that the incentive on small businesses did not have the desired effect on capital accumulation in general. However, there were unintended benefits for small exporters, a result that is important for export-growth policy and one that would have been missed had all small firms been treated as homogenous in the analysis.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Uitvoere is van belang vir ekonomiese groei. Uitvoer word met hoër vlakke van werksgeleenthede, innovasie en belegging geassosieer. Die Suid-Afrikaanse regering erken die rol van uitvoere vir die stimulasie van die ekonomie, soos gesien kan word in die Nuwe Groeipad, die Nasionale Uitvoerontwikkelingsprogram en die Mediumtermyn Strategiese Raamwerk 2014-2019. Ten spyte hiervan bestaan relatief min kennis oor die dinamiek van werklike uitvoerfirmas in Suid-Afrika. Bestaande Suid-Afrikaanse literatuur is beperk weens ʼn tekort aan toegang tot omvattende firma-vlak-paneeldata. Hierdie proefskrif oorkom hierdie probleem deur twee unieke bronne van substansiële, gedetailleerde data oor Suid-Afrikaanse firmas, oor tyd, bekom vanaf amptelike regeringsbronne, te analiseer. Hierdie is een van die eerste gevalle waartydens data van hierdie aard beskikbaar was vir analise in Suid-Afrika, en dus maak hierdie dit vir dié proefskrif moontlik om die Suid-Afrikaanse uitvoeromgewing op dieselfde vlak van detail, soos in internasionale literatuur gevind word, te bestudeer. Eerstens herbesin hierdie proefskrif oor die ‘gestileerde feite’ van uitvoer in die geval van Suid-Afrika in meer besonderhede. Teenstrydig met internasionale literatuur kom bestaande Suid-Afrikaanse navorsing tot die gevolgtrekking dat uitvoerders, oor die algemeen, nie meer produktief as nie-uitvoerders is nie. ʼn Aantal moontlike verduidelikings vir hierdie ontbrekende produktiwiteitspremie is in die literatuur voorgestel; gegewe die vorige tekort aan voldoende firma-vlak-data, oor tyd, is min van hierdie verduidelikings egter na behore getoets. Hierdie proefskrif kan nou sommige van hierdie verduidelikings toets deur gebruik te maak van dié twee amptelike firma-vlak-datastelle. Daar word bevind dat beide die aard van die data in vorige studies gebruik, sowel as die homogene hantering van uitvoerders ʼn beduidende rol in die versteking van Suid-Afrikaanse uitvoerders se produktiwiteitspremie speel. Tweedens maak hierdie proefskrif gebruik van ʼn relatief nuwe, sonder toesig masjienleer-tegniek om die robuustheid van die tradisionele klassifikasie van firmas en uitvoerder te toets. Navorsing wat van firma-vlak-data gebruik maak, klassifiseer firmas, en uitvoerders, normaalweg op a priori-aannames. Firmas word normaalweg volgens grootte, uitvoerdeelname, bestemming en produkte gegroepeer, en korrelasies word gerapporteer gebaseer op hierdie klassifikasies. Hierdie studie keer hierdie proses om, deur die data die bondels te laat identifiseer. Dit maak gebruik van bondel-analisetegnieke om klassifikasies van Suid-Afrikaanse vervaardigingsfirmas a posteriori te identifiseer. Die bevindings lig, onder andere, die bruikbaarheid van eksploratiewe tegnieke, soos bondeling vir die identifisering van potensiële heterogeniteit tussen firmas, veral binne groot firma-vlak-datastelle, uit. Laastens word die belangrikheid om firma- en uitvoerder-heterogeniteit vir beleidsdoeleindes te identifiseer, geïllustreer. Spesifiek maak hierdie proefskrif gebruik van substansiële firma-vlak-data, tesame met ʼn natuurlike eksperiment inherent tot die Suid-Afrikaanse belastingwetgewing, om die impak van ʼn spesifieke belastinginsentief op kleinsakebelegging en –groei te assesseer. Die bevindinge suggereer dat die insentief op kleinsakeondernemings nie die gewenste effek op kapitaalakkumulering, oor die algemeen, gehad het nie. Daar was egter onbedoelde voordele vir klein uitvoerders; ʼn resultaat wat belangrik is vir uitvoer-groeibeleid, en een wat gemis sou word indien alle kleinsakeondernemings as homogeen in die analise hanteer sou word. Thesis (DCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2016. Thu, 01 Dec 2016 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/100085 2016-12-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/98853 An economic perspective on school leadership and teachers' unions in South Africa Wills, Gabrielle ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This dissertation considers two factors that are considered critical to disrupting an existing culture of inefficiency in the production of learning in South Africa, namely school leadership and teachers’ unions. This first part of the dissertation positions itself within a growing discourse in the economics literature, and in local policy circles, on the importance of harnessing the role of school principals as a route to educational progress. Using a unique dataset constructed by matching administrative datasets in education, the study aims to provide greater specificity to our understanding of the labour market for school principals in South Africa. Chapter two constructs a quantitative profile of this market with implications for policy reforms in raising the calibre of school leadership. It identifies existing inequalities in the distribution of qualified and experienced principals across poorer and wealthier schools, gender disparities in principal positions, low levels of principal mobility across the public education system and high tenure. Together, the evidence points to the need for policies aimed at improving the initial match of principals to schools while developing incumbent principals over their length of tenure. The findings highlight that improving the design and implementation of policies guiding the appointment process for principals is a matter of urgency. A substantial and increasing number of principal retirements are taking place across South African schools given a rising age profile of school principals. Selection criteria need to be amended to identify relevant expertise and skills, rather than relying on principal credentials as captured in payroll data which are shown to be poor signals of principal quality. While the rising number of principal retirements presents an opportunity to replace weaker principals with better performing ones, this will be accompanied by various challenges including recruiting, selecting and hiring suitable candidates. Moreover, it takes time for school principals to have their full effect on school environments and initially, school performance may decline in response to a leadership succession. Using a fixed effects estimation approach, chapter three suggests that principal changes are indeed initially detrimental to school performance, especially in poorer schools. These results are robust to using an alternative estimation strategy following the work of Heckman, Ichimura and Todd (1997) to control for additional sources of estimation bias. The chapter also considers two mechanisms through which school leadership changes may impact on school performance, namely through rising promotion rates and teacher turnover. After the discussion on school leadership, chapter four shifts its focus to measure teacher union impacts on educational outcomes by investigating a disruption hypothesis that student learning is lost as a direct consequence of teacher participation in strike action, particularly the intensive public sector strike of 2007. The study exploits heterogeneity that exists within schools in the level of teacher union militancy to control for confounding factors that may bias estimates of strike effects. An across-subject within-student analysis, following an approach by Kingdon and Teal (2010), suggests that teacher strike participation negatively affects learning for students in the poorest three quarters of schools in South Africa. However, the discussion reveals difficulties in isolating out, specifically, unobserved teacher characteristics that may bias the observed strike effect. There is suggestive evidence that the most marginalised students in rural areas, and those that are weaker academically, are most at risk of learning losses as a result of teacher strikes. In this respect, industrial action has implications for widening existing inequalities in student achievement across the South African education system.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie proefskrif oorweeg twee faktore wat krities geag word om die huidige kultuur van ondoeltreffendheid in Suid-Afrikaanse onderwys te verbeter, naamlik skoolleierskap en onderwysvakbonde. Die eerste gedeelte van die proefskrif sluit aan by die groeiende debat in die ekonomiese literatuur en in plaaslike beleidskringe oor die belangrike rol van skoolhoofde in opvoedkundige vooruitgang. Met gebruik van ʼn unieke datastel wat saamgestel is deur administratiewe data te integreer, poog die studie om ʼn duideliker insig in die arbeidsmark vir Suid-Afrikaanse skoolhoofde te kry. Die tweede hoofstuk skep ‘n kwantitatiewe profiel van hierdie mark en bespreek beleidsopsies om skoolleierskap te verbeter. Uit die hoofstuk blyk die bestaande ongelykhede in die verspreiding van gekwalifiseerde en ervare skoolhoofde tussen armer en ryker skole, geslagsongelykhede in skoolhoof-poste, lae mobiliteit van skoolhoofde en uitgerekte ampstermyne. Ontleding hiervan dui op die behoefte aan ʼn beleid wat skoolhoofde se aanvanklike plasing in poste verbeter, en dat dié skoolhoofde terselfdertyd nuwe skoolhoofde moet oplei en vir die amp bekwaam. Die bevindinge dui daarop hoe belangrik dit is dat sowel die ontwerp as die implementering van beleid dringend verbeter. Gegewe die stygende ouderdomsprofiel van Suid-Afrikaanse skoolhoofde, staan baie van hulle op of naby aftrede. Aanstellingskriteria moet daarom aangepas word om toepaslike kundigheid en vaardighede te identifiseer, eerder as om op ʼn skoolhoof se kwalifikasies staat te maak, wat ʼn bewese swak aanwyser van die bevoegdheid van ʼn skoolhoof is. Terwyl die stygende aantal aftredes van skoolhoofde ʼn geleentheid bied om swakker skoolhoofde te vervang, is daar uitdagings in die werwing, keuring en aanstelling van gepaste kandidate. Verder neem dit ook tyd vir skoolhoofde om hulle volle impak op die skoolomgewing te maak en skoolprestasie mag aanvanklik afneem as gevolg van die verandering in leierskap. Hoofstuk 3 se vaste-effek beramingsmodel dui daarop dat ʼn verandering van skoolhoof aanvanklik nadelig is vir skoolprestasie, veral in armer skole. Dieselfde resultate word ook verkry deur van ʼn alternatiewe beramingsmetode van Heckman, Ishimura en Todd (1997) gebruik te maak, wat moontlike nie-parallelle tendense in skoolprestasie in ag neem. Die hoofstuk oorweeg ook twee meganismes waardeur leierskapsveranderinge skoolprestasie mag beïnvloed, naamlik deur versnelde promosie van leerlinge tussen grade en deur hoër onderwyseromset. Na die bespreking van skoolleierskap, skuif die klem in hoofstuk vier na die meting van die impak wat onderwysvakbonde op opvoedkundige uitkomstes het, deur ondersoek in te stel na ʼn ontwrigtingshipotese, dat die leerproses negatief beïnvloed word deur die ontwrigting wat onderwyserstakings inhou. Meer spesifiek word die invloed van die uitgebreide staking in die publieke sektor in 2007 in hierdie hoofstuk ontleed. Hierdie ontleding gebruik die heterogeniteit binne skole in onderwysers se deelname aan stakings om te kontroleer vir ander kompliserende faktore wat sydigheid in die gemete effekte van stakings mag veroorsaak. In navolging van ʼn metode van Kingdon en Teal (2010) word ʼn analise gedoen van die verskil in die prestasie van leerders in verskillende vakke wat deur verskillende onderwysers aangebied word. Die resultate dui daarop dat betrokkenheid van onderwysers by stakings ‘n negatiewe invloed het op hoeveel studente in die armer drie-kwart van Suid-Afrikaanse skole leer. Tog wys die bespreking daarop hoe moeilik dit is om die effek van onwaargenome eienskappe van onderwysers, wat sydigheid in die meting van die effek van stakings mag meebring, te isoleer. Daar is egter wel aanduidings dat gemarginaliseerde leerders in landelike gebiede, asook dié wat akademies swakker vaar, ‘n hoër risiko loop van swakker leeruitkomste as gevolg van onderwyserstakings. Gegewe die resultate lyk dit asof onderwyserstakings ongelykhede in leerderprestasie in die Suid-Afrikaanse onderwysstelsel vergroot. Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2016. Tue, 01 Mar 2016 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/98853 2016-03-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/98809 A structural approach to modelling South African labour market decisions Burger, Cobus ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Youth unemployment is high in South Africa and especially high among black males. The slow absorption of young black males into the employment is somewhat surprising given that the descriptive statistics suggest that employment mobility in South Africa is high. In the first chapter, I investigate whether the labour market is truly as mobile as reported or whether the transition estimate is rather a reflection of misclassification error or unobserved individual heterogeneity. Thereafter, in chapter two, I proceed to examine the role of reservation wages on unemployment. Unlike previous studies I do not make use of self-reported reservation wages. Instead I use a job search model to recover the reservation wages that are consistent with the behaviour we observe in the labour market. In the final chapter, I look at the role of education on labour market outcomes. More specifically, at whether ability bias is present and whether current estimates are inflated. I do so through a dynamic programming model that mimics the schooling decision for forward-looking optimizing agents.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Werkloosheid onder die jeug is hoog in Suid-Afrika en veral hoog onder swart mans. Die stadige indiensnamekoers van swart mans is ietwat verrassend gegewe dat konvensionele modelle daarop dui dat die mobiliteit van indiensname in Suid-Afrika hoog is. In die eerste hoofstuk, word daar ondersoek of die arbeidsmark werklik so mobiel is soos gerapporteer word en of die huidige beraamings van mobiliteit nie liewer ‘n aanduiding van metingsfout of heterogeniteit is nie. Daarna, in hoofstuk twee, word daar gekyk na die die rol van reserwelone op werkloosheid. Liewer as om gebruik te maak van selfgerapporteerde reserwelone ontwikkel ek ‘n indiensnamemodel om die reserwelone te vind wat ooreenstem met die gedrag in die arbeidsmark. In die laaste hoofstuk, kyk ek na die rol van onderwys op arbeidsmark uitkomste. Ek ondersoek of die huidige oprengskoers vir opvoeding sydig is wanneer mens versuim om te kontroleer vir die effek van vermoens. Ek gebruik 'n dinamiese programmering model wat my in staat stel om die optimale hoeveel opvoeding vir toekomsgerigte individu te beraam. Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2016. Tue, 01 Mar 2016 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/98809 2016-03-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/98752 A demographic history of settler South Africa Cilliers, Jeanne Alexandra ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Economic incentives affect demographic outcomes. That is to say, fertility, mortality, migration and mobility are a result of economic performance, growth and inequality. While demographic changes may be slow, the long-run effects can be significant. The Western demographic transition of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries has had a profound effect on the living conditions of people across the world. Instead of having six or more children, most families today have only two, and life expectancy in most Western countries doubled in the four or five decades around the turn of the twentieth century. It is within this broad framework relating to the nature and causes of demographic transitions that this dissertation is orientated. How these demographic changes spread across the globe remains an important question for theoretical and empirical research, with obvious policy implications. It is therefore surprising that so little is known about the demographic history of South Africa, the wealthiest African country during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and the first to undergo a demographic transition. There is remarkably limited empirical evidence of what living conditions, social interactions and family formation might have been like for the inhabitants of eighteenth, nineteenth and early-twentieth century South Africa. By focusing on the demographic characteristics of European settlers and their descendants in South Africa, this dissertation begins to provide a more comprehensive account of South Africa’s demographic history. The first question addressed in this study investigates the nature and causes of the settler fertility decline. It aims to provide, for the first time, a thorough descriptive account of the changing levels of fertility and explores land constraint as a potential mechanism for the limitation of fertility. To do so, it uses geographic and socio-economic differentials in fertility over time, first, in a simple regression analysis framework and second, in an event-history analysis framework, to allow for a deeper understanding of the possible mechanisms at work at the individual level. The second question addressed in this study relates to the gender composition of offspring as a determinant of future fertility behaviour. While couples in modern societies have been shown to have gender neutral preferences for their offspring, new research on past populations suggests that a preference for sons over daughters might have influenced couples’ fertility decision-making behaviour, and potentially have limited the onset of the fertility decline. An investigation into whether a preference for sons existed in the settler Cape Colony context, through an event-history analysis of birth-spacing behaviour at high parities, conditional on the couple’s existing offspring gender-mix, informs the debate on within-marriage birth control practices in history, as well as the effect of economic development on couples’ fertility behaviour. Finally, in societies with a large rural majority and a small group of elites, the prospects for social mobility are said to be limited. However, the liberal theory of industrialism suggests that social mobility will likely increase as a result of the process of industrialisation itself, as new occupations replace those held by members of previous generations. Industrialisation is also expected to result in a shift away from ascription by birth towards achievement-based mobility. The third question addressed in this study investigates whether social (occupational) mobility increased under late nineteenth and early twentieth-century South African industrialism and whether or not this translated into real improvements in settler living standards.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Ekonomiese aansporings beinvloed demografiese uitkomste. Dit wil sê, fertiliteit, lewensverwagting en mobiliteit is gevolge van veranderinge in ekonomiese prestasie, ekonomiese groei en ongelykheid. Hoewel demografiese veranderinge lank kan duur, kan die langtermyn gevolge beduidend wees. Die demografiese verandering wat tydens die laat negentiende en vroeë twintigste eeu in die Weste plaasgevind het, het 'n diepgaande uitwerking op die lewensomstandighede van mense regoor die wêreld gehad. Deesdae bestaan die meeste gesinne uit ’n egpaar en twee kinders, instede van die ses of meer kinders wat in die verlede die norm was. Terselfdertyd het die lewensverwagting van die bevolkings van die meeste Westerse lande in die vier of vyf dekades rondom die begin van die twintigste eeu verdubbel. Hierdie proefskrif ondersoek die aard en oorsake van demografiese veranderinge in Suid-Afrika binne dié breë raamwerk. Hoe hierdie demografiese veranderinge oor die wêreld versprei het, bly 'n belangrike vraag vir teoretiese en empiriese navorsing, met ooglopende implikasies vir beleid. Dit is gevolglik verbasend dat so min bekend is oor die demografiese geskiedenis van Suid-Afrika, die rykste Afrikaland in die negentiende en twintigste eeu en die eerste wat die demografiese oorgang deurloop het. Ons besit merkwaardig min empiriese getuienis oor die lewensomstandighede, maatskaplike interaksie en gesinsvorming van die inwoners van Suid-Afrika in die agtiende, negentiende en vroeë twintigste eeu. Hierdie proefskrif begin die proses om ‘n meer volledige beskrywing van die demografiese geskiedenis van Suid-Afrika daar te stel deur die soeklig te laat val op die demografiese kenmerke van Europese setlaars en hulle nasate in Suid-Afrika. Die eerste vraag wat hierdie proefskrif ondersoek, is die aard en oorsake van die daling in setlaars se fertiliteitskoerse. Die doel is om vir die eerste keer ’n omvattende beskrywing van die veranderende vlakke van fertiliteit te gee en om vas te stel of die hoeveelheid grond wat vir landbou beskikbaar was dalk ‘n meganisme was wat fertiliteit beperk het. Geografiese en sosio-ekonomiese verskille in fertiliteit gedurende verskillende historiese periodes word hiervoor gebruik, eerstens in ‘n eenvoudige regressie-ontledingsraamwerk en tweedens in ‘n gebeurtenis-geskiedenis-ontledingsraamwerk wat ‘n dieper begrip bied van die meganismes wat moontlik op die individuele vlak ’n rol gespeel het. Die tweede vraag wat in die proefskrif ondersoek word, het te make met die invloed van die geslagsamestelling van ’n egpaar se kinders op toekomstige fertiliteit. Egpare in moderne samelewings is tipies onsydig met betrekking tot die geslag van hul kinders. Nuwe navorsing oor bevolkings in die verlede dui daarop dat ’n voorkeur vir seuns moontlik egpare se besluitnemingsgedrag oor fertiliteit beïnvloed het. Hierdie voorkeur het moontlik die aanvang van die afname in fertiliteit vertraag. Die proefskrif ondersoek of daar ’n voorkeur vir seuns in die Kaapkolonie bestaan het deur ‘n gebeurtenis-geskiedenis-ontleding van geboorte-spasiëringsgedrag wat die geslagsamestelling van egpare se vorige kinders in ag neem. Hieruit kan gevolgtrekkings gemaak word oor die geboortebeperkingstrategieë wat in die geskiedenis binne huwelikke voorgekom het, asook oor die invloed van ekonomiese ontwikkeling op die fertiliteitsgedrag van egpare. Laastens, die vooruitsigte vir sosiale mobiliteit is gewoonlik beperk in gemeenskappe met 'n groot landelike bevolking en 'n relatiewe klein elite. Die liberale teorie van industrialisme voorspel nietemin dat sosiale mobiliteit waarskynlik as gevolg van die proses van industrialisasie sal toeneem namate nuwe beroepe dié wat deur lede van die vorige geslag beklee is, vervang. Daar kan ook verwag word dat industrialisasie sal lei tot ‘n verskuiwing van toeskrywing vanweë geboorte na mobiliteit wat deur eie prestasies bepaal word. Die derde vraag wat in hierdie proefskrif ondersoek word, is of sosiale (beroeps-) mobiliteit toegeneem het gedurende die industrialisasie wat in die laat negentiende- en vroeë twintigste-eeu in Suid-Afrika plaasgevind het, en of dit tot werklike verbeterings in die lewenstandaarde van setlaars aanleiding gegee het. Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2016. Tue, 01 Mar 2016 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/98752 2016-03-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/98711 Healthcare reform priorities for South Africa : four essays on the financing, delivery and user acceptability of healthcare Smith, Anna Maria ENGLISH ABSTRACT: peers, South Africa is achieving health outcomes that are comparable to those of low-income countries. This dissertation contains four essays on the financing, user acceptability and delivery of healthcare in South Africa. The main contribution of the dissertation is to determine how the user acceptability of healthcare services influences not only health seeking behaviour in South Africa, but also influences the ability of healthcare services to impact health outcomes. Without sufficient focus on user acceptability, the success of the health system will be undermined by creating missed opportunities for the prevention, detection and treatment of disease. The first essay considers the potential role of private health insurance (medical schemes) in reducing inequality to healthcare access and alleviating the burden from a constrained public healthcare system by providing access to healthcare services of higher user acceptability levels. The analysis indicates that, in the absence of a number of regulatory changes in the market primarily aimed at increasing the affordability of medical schemes, the size of the formal skilled labour market will continue to set the limits of the private health insurance market. The second essay examines the causal impact of access to private health insurance (medical schemes) on healthcare utilisation and healthcare provider choice by using the exogenous variation in private health insurance coverage induced by the roll-out of the Government Employees Medical Scheme (GEMS). Contrary to most of the findings in the literature, the analysis finds that providing access to healthcare perceived to be of greater user acceptability in South Africa’s polarised healthcare market has a large positive effect on total healthcare utilisation. It also increases the likelihood of using private providers and, in particular, private doctors. In the third essay, the dissertation considers the health seeking behaviour of adults with potential tuberculosis (TB) symptoms (coughed ≥2 weeks) in the Western Cape. Only one third of adults indicated they sought help for TB symptoms and only one fourth of those who coughed ≥2 weeks reported these symptoms at primary healthcare facilities. Women were less likely than men to be asked for a sputum sample at these facilities, indicating poor adherence by healthcare staff to the well-defined TB testing protocol. Lastly, the fourth essay explores the causes of late antenatal care access amongst a sample of women in metropolitan Cape Town. More than a quarter of women attended antenatal care late (≥20 weeks) and, of those who attended late, 48.2% indicated late recognition of pregnancy as the major reason for delayed attendance. While late access was predominantly associated with demandside factors, late recognition of pregnancy, together with high levels of unplanned pregnancies, point towards issues related to effective access to contraception. The analysis in the first two essays indicate that there is a demand for healthcare of greater user acceptability, and the last two essays show that this would need to include improved preventative care, enhanced health system effectiveness and better clinical quality monitoring.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Ten spyte van gesondheidsbestedingsvlakke wat vergelykbaar is met dié van ander hoër-middelinkomste lande, bereik Suid-Afrika gesondheidsuitkomste vergelykbaar met dié van lae-inkomste lande. Hierdie proefskrif bevat vier opstelle oor die finansiering, gebruikersaanvaarbaarheid en voorsiening van gesondheidsorg in Suid-Afrika. Die hoofbydrae van die proefskrif is om te bepaal hoe die gebruikersaanvaarbaarheid van gesondheidsorg beide gesondheidsoekende gedrag en die vermoë van die stelsel om ‘n impak op gesondheidsuitkomste te hê, beïnvloed. Sonder genoegsame fokus op gebruikersaanvaarbaarheid sal die sukses van die gesondheidstelsel ondermyn word deur die verbeuring van geleenthede vir die voorkoming, identifikasie en behandeling van siektes. Die eerste opstel oorweeg die moontlike rol van privaat mediese versekering (mediese fondse) in die vermindering van ongelyke toegang tot gesondheidsorg, sowel as die verligting van die las op die publieke gesondheidstelsel, deur toegang te verskaf tot gesondheidsdienste van hoër gebruikersaanvaarbaarheidsvlakke. Die analise dui daarop dat, in die afwesigheid van ‘n aantal regulatoriese veranderinge in die mark hoofsaaklik daarop gemik om die bekostigbaarheid van mediese fondse te verbeter, die grootte van die formele, geskoolde arbeidsmark sal aanhou om die grense van die privaat mediese versekeringsmark te bepaal. Die tweede opstel ondersoek die kousale impak van toegang tot privaat mediese versekering (mediese fondse) op die gebruik van gesondheidsorg, asook gesondheidsverskafferkeuse deur die benutting van die eksogene variasie in privaat mediese versekeringsdekking wat teweeggebring is deur die uitbreiding van die Regeringswerknemers Mediese Skema (GEMS). In teenstelling met meeste bevindinge in die literatuur, toon die analise dat toegang tot gesondheidsorg van oënskynlik hoër gebruikersaanvaarbaarheid in die konteks van Suid-Afrika se gepolariseerde gesondheidsmark, ‘n groot positiewe impak op die benutting van gesondheidsorg het. Dit verhoog ook die waarskynlikheid van die gebruik van privaat gesondheidsverskaffers en, meer spesifiek, privaat dokters. In die derde opstel stel die proefskrif ondersoek in na die gesondheidsoekende gedrag van volwassenes met moontlike tuberkulose (TB)-simptome (hoes ≥2 weke) in die Wes-Kaap. Slegs een derde van volwassenes het aangedui dat hul hulp gesoek het vir moontlike TB-simptome en slegs ‘n kwart van dié wat ≥2 weke gehoes het, het hierdie simptome aangemeld by ‘n primêre gesondheidsorgfasiliteit. Voorts was die neiging dat minder vroue as mans by hierdie fasiliteite vir ‘n sputummonster gevra is, wat dui op op gesondheidspersoneel se swak nakoming van die goed gedefineerde TB-toetsingsprotokol. Laastens ondersoek die vierde opstel die oorsake van laat toegang tot voorgeboortesorg in ‘n steekproef van vroue in metropolitaanse Kaapstad. Meer as n kwart van die vroue het voorgeboortesorg laat in hul swangerskappe bygewoon (≥20 weke) en, van dié wat dit laat bygewoon het, het 48.2% laat bewuswording van swangerskap as die hoofrede vir die vertraging van hul bywoning aangevoer. Terwyl laat bywoning hoofsaaklik geassosieer was met vraagkant-faktore, dui die laat bewuswording van swangerskap, tesame met hoë vlakke van onbeplande swangerskappe in die steekproef, op kwessies rondom effektiewe toegang tot voorbehoedmiddels. Die analises in die eerste twee opstelle dui op ‘n vraag na gesondheidsorg van hoër gebruikersaanvaarbaarheid en die laaste twee opstelle toon hoe hierdie sorg verbeterde voorkomende gesondheidsorg, hoër stelseleffektiwiteit en beter kliniese gehaltekontrolering sal moet insluit. Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2016. Tue, 01 Mar 2016 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/98711 2016-03-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/98647 Graduate unemployment, higher education access and success, and teacher production in South Africa Van Broekhuizen, Hendrik ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In the context of South Africa’s socio-economic challenges, Higher Education (HE) has a key role to play, not just in terms of producing su cient numbers of graduates and the scarce skills that are required for economic development and growth, but also in terms of providing opportunities for social mobility and restitution. This dissertation examines the extent to which the public HE system ful ls these roles by investigating three topics within the nexus between the secondary schooling system, HE, and the labour market in South Africa. Chapter 2 of the dissertation investigates graduate unemployment by focussing on the associations between HE institutions and the expected employment and unemployment outcomes for graduates from di erent race groups. Using a probabilistic approach to link labour force and HE data, the chapter estimates the associations between the probability of having graduated from a particular type of HE institution and the likelihood of being unemployed or employed. The results indicate that graduate unemployment in South Africa is neither high, nor rising rapidly over time and that much of the observed inter-racial variation in graduate unemployment rates may be explained by di erences in the types of HE institutions that di erent race groups have historically been likely to attend. Chapter 3 investigates HE access and success in the Western Cape, with speci c emphasis on the roles that demographics, academic performance, and school-level factors play in explaining the extent of, and the differentials in, HE participation and throughput among matric learners in the province. By explicitly linking learner records from matric examination data with student records from HE data, the chapter estimates the marginal contributions and relative importance of various pre-entry correlates and HE-level factors for observed HE outcomes among learners in the Western Cape and illustrates the respective roles that HE access rate and HE throughput rate di erentials play in explaining observed racial di erentials in HE graduations. The ndings reveal that HE access, throughput, and dropout rates are strongly correlated with matric performance and that much of the observed racial di erentials in HE access and dropout in theWestern Cape can be explained by di erences in matric performance levels between race groups. It is argued that the persistent HE completion rate premiums for White students may partly be driven by di erential conditional selection into HE. Lastly, Chapter 4 focusses on the production of Initial Teacher Education (ITE) graduates by the public HE system between 2004 and 2013 and its implications for teacher supply in South Africa. Using aggregate Higher Education Management Information System (HEMIS) data, the chapter provides a comprehensive descriptive analysis of the trends and underlying correlates of rst-time enrolments and graduations in ITE programmes. Despite the fact that enrolments and graduations in ITE programmes have risen signi cantly since 2004, the ndings suggest that South Africa is currently not producing su cient numbers of teacher graduates. Projections indicate that the system could begin to produce su cient numbers of graduates to satisfy projected teacher demand within the next decade, conditional on current enrolment growth and programme throughput rates. The chapter concludes that, in order to address South Africa’s teacher supply shortfall, greater emphasis is needed on ensuring that ITE students complete their programmes, specialise in high-demand subject areas and phases, and transition into the teaching profession with minimal delay.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Binne die konteks van Suid-Afrika se sosio-ekonomiese uitdagings het Hoër Onderwys (HO) ’n belangrike sleutelrol om te vervul, nie net wat die produksie van genoegsame gegradueerdes en die daarstelling van skaars vaardighede (wat benodigword vir ekonomies ontwikkeling en groei) betref nie, maar ook om geleenthede vir sosiale mobiliteit en restitusie te bied. Hierdie proefskrif ondersoek die mate waartoe die openbare HO sisteem hierdie rolle vertolk deur die navorsing van drie temas binne die neksus tussen die sekondêre skoolsisteeem, HO, en die arbeidsmark in Suid-Afrika. Hoofstuk 2 van die proefskrif bestudeer gegradueerde werkloosheid deur te fokus op die verband tussen HO instansies en die verwagte indiensneming- en werkloosheidsuitkomstes vir gegradueerdes uit verskillende rassegroepe. Deur gebruik te maak van ’n waarskynlikheidsbenadering om arbeidsmark en HO data aan mekaar te koppel, word the verband beraam tussen die waarskynlikheid dat ’n gegradueerde aan ’n spesi eke tipe HO instansie afgestudeer het en die waarskynlikheid dat hy/sy werkloos of in diens geneem is. Die resultate dui daarop dat gegradueerde werkloosheid in Suid Afrika nóg hoog is, nóg besig is om dramaties oor tyd te styg en dat ’n groot deel van die waargenome variasie in gegradueerdewerkloosheidskoerse tussen rasse verduidelik kan word deur die feit dat sekere rassegroepe meer waarskynlik is om aan sekere HO instansie te studeer. Hoofstuk 3 onderstoek HO toegang en sukses in die Wes-Kaap, met spesi eke klem op die rolle wat demogra e, akademiese prestasie, en skoolfaktore speel deur die mate van, en die verksille in HO deelname en deurvloeie onder matriek-leerders in die provinsie te verduidelik. Deur leerder-rekords uit matriekeksamendata direk te koppel met studenterekords uit HO data, word die marginale bydraes en relatiewe belangrikheid beraam van verskeie voor-intrede korrelate vir HO uitkomstes onder leerders in die Wes-Kaap. Die hoofstuk illustreer ook die onderskeie rolle wat verskille in HO toegangskoerse en HO deurvloeikoerse speel in die verduideliking van waargenome rasseverskille in HO graduasies. Die bevindings dui daarop dat HO toegang- , deurvloei-, en uitvalkoerse sterk korreleer met matriekprestasie en dat ’n groot deel van die verskil in HO toegang en uitval tussen rassegroepe in die Wes-Kaap verduidelik kan word deur onderliggende verskille in matriekprestasievlakke. Dit word beredeneer dat die volgehoue HO deurvloekoerspremies vir Wit studente gedeeltelik gedryf word deur verskille in die voorwaardelike HO seleksie-meganisme. Hoofstuk 4 van die proefskrif sluit af deur te fokus op die produksie van gegradueerdes met Initial Teacher Education (ITE) kwali kasies in die openbare HO sisteem tussen 2004 en 2013 en die gevolge wat huidige en toekomstige produksievlakke inhou vir die aanbod van onderwysers in Suid-Afrika. Deur gebruik te maak van saamgestelde Higher Education Management Information System (HEMIS) data, bied die hoofstuk ’n omvattende beskrywende analise van die tendense en onderliggende korrelate van nuwe inskrywings en graduasies in ITE programme. Ten spyte van die feit dat inskrywings en graduasies in ITE programme beduidend sedert 2004 gestyg het, dui die bevindings daarop dat Suid-Afrika tans nie genoeg gegradueerde onderwysers produseer nie. Indien inskrywings aanhou groei en huidige deurvloeikoerse volgehou kanword, word daar beraam dat die HO-sisteem binne die volgende dekade kan begin om genoeg ITE gegradueerdes te produseer om te voldoen aan die beraamde aanvraag na nuwe onderwysers. Die hoofstuk maak die gevolgtrekking dat, ten einde die tekort aan Suid-Afrikaanse onderwysers aan te spreek, groter klem gelê moet word op die noodsaaklikheid dat ITE studente hul kursusse moet voltooi, dat hul moet spesialiseer in hoë aanvraag vak-areas en fases en dat die oorgang in die onderwysprofessie sonder vertraging moet plaasvind. Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2016. Tue, 01 Mar 2016 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/98647 2016-03-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/96998 Teachers in the South African education system : an economic perspective Armstrong, Paula Louise ENGLISH ABSTRACT: ABSTRACT Chapter 1 investigates teacher wages in the South African labour market, in order to ascertain whether teaching is a financially attractive profession, and whether high ability individuals are likely to be attracted to the teaching force. Making use of labour force survey data for the years 2000 to 2007 and for 2010, wage returns to educational attainment and experience are measured for teachers, non-teachers and non-teaching professionals. The returns to higher levels of education for teachers are significantly lower than for non-teachers and non-teaching professionals. Similarly, the age-wage profile for teachers is significantly flatter than it is for non-teachers, indicating that there is little wage incentive to remain in teaching beyond roughly 12 years. The profession is therefore unlikely to attract high ability individuals who are able to collect attractive remuneration elsewhere in the labour market. Chapter 2 deals with explicit teacher incentives in education. It provides a technical analysis of Holstrom and Milgrom’s (1991) multitasking model and Kandel and Lazear’s (1992) model of peer pressure as an incentivising force, highlighting aspects of these models that are necessary to ensure that incentive systems operate successfully. The chapter provides an overview of incentive systems internationally, discussing elements of various systems that may be useful in a South African setting. The prospects for the introduction of incentives in South Africa are discussed, with the conclusion that the systems in place at the moment are not conducive to introducing teacher incentives. There are however models in Chile and Brazil, for example, that may work effectively in a South African setting, given their explicit handling of inequality within the education system. Chapter 3 makes use of hierarchical linear modelling to investigate which teacher characteristics impact significantly on student performance. Using data from the SACMEQ III study of 2007, an interesting and potentially important finding is that younger teachers are better able to improve the mean mathematics performance of their students. Furthermore, younger teachers themselves perform better on subject tests than do their older counterparts. Changes in teacher education in the late 1990s and early 2000s may explain the differences in the performance of younger teachers relative to their older counterparts. However, further investigation is required to fully understand these differences.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In Hoofstuk 1 word die lone van onderwysers in die Suid-Afrikaanse arbeidsmark ondersoek om vas te stel of onderwys ʼn finansieel aantreklike beroep is en hoe waarskynlik dit is dat mense met sterk vermoëns na die onderwys gelok sal word. Met gebruik van arbeidsmagopnamedata van 2000 tot 2007 en van 2010 word die loonopbrengs op jare onderwys en ervaring vir onderwysers, nie-onderwysers en beroepslui buite die onderwys gemeet. Die opbrengste vir hoër vlakke van opvoeding is beduidend laer vir onderwysers as vir nie-onderwysers en nie-onderwys beroepslui. Netso is die ouderdom-loonprofiel van onderwysers beduidend platter as vir nie-onderwysers, wat dui op weinig looninsentief om langer as ongeveer 12 jaar in die onderwysveld te bly. Dit is dus onwaarskynlik dat hierdie beroep baie bekwame mense sal lok wat elders in die arbeidsmark goed sou kon verdien. In Hoofstuk 2 word na eksplisiete insentiewe in die onderwys gekyk. Die hoofstuk verskaf ʼn tegniese analise van die multi-taak-model van Holstrom en Milgrom (1991) en van Kandel en Lazear (1992) se model van portuur-druk as aansporingskrag, met klem op die aspekte van hierdie modelle wat in Suid-Afrikaanse omstandighede van nut mag wees. Vooruitsigte vir die instelling van insentiewe in Suid-Afrika word bespreek, met die slotsom dat die stelsels wat tans in plek is nie bevorderlik vir die instelling van onderwysersinsentiewe is nie. Daar is egter modelle in byvoorbeeld Chili en Brasilië wat effektief in Suid-Afrikaanse omstandighede sou kon funksioneer, gegewe hulle eksplisiete klem op ongelykheid binne die onderwys. In Hoofstuk 3 word hiërargiese liniêre programmering gebruik om te ondersoek watter eienskappe van onderwysers ʼn belangrike invloed op studenteprestasie uitoefen. Met gebruik van data van die SACMEQ III studie van 2007 is ʼn interessante bevinding dat jonger onderwysers beter in staat is om die gemiddelde wiskunde prestasie van hulle student te verbeter. Verder vertoon sulke jonger onderwysers self ook beter in die vaktoetse in Wiskunde en taal as hulle ouer kollegas. Veranderings in onderwysopleiding in die laat negentigerjare en vroeë jare van hierdie eeu kan dalk die verskille in die vertonings van jonger onderwysers relatief tot hulle ouer eweknieë verklaar. Verdere ondersoek is egter nodig om hierdie verskille beter te verstaan. Thesis PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. Wed, 01 Apr 2015 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/96998 2015-04-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/96872 Social mobility and cohesion in post-apartheid South Africa Von Fintel, Marisa ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Twenty years after the end of apartheid, South Africa remains one of the most unequal countries in the world. Socio-economic polarisation is entrenched by the lack of social capital and interactions across racial and economic divides, blocking pathways out of poverty. This dissertation examines social mobility and cohesion in post-apartheid South Africa by considering three related topics. Chapter 2 of the dissertation examines the impact of school quality on the academic performance of disadvantaged learners as one of the most important enforcing factors perpetuating the social and economic divides. Given the historic racial and economic stratification of the South African public school system, many black children are sent to historically white public schools as a way to escape poverty. Using longitudinal data, this chapter estimates the effect of attending a historically white school on the numeracy and literacy scores of black children. The main challenge is to address the selection bias in the estimates, for which a value-added approach is implemented in order to control for unobserved child-specific heterogeneity. In addition, various household covariates are used to control for household-level differences among children. The results indicate that the attendance of a former white school has a large and statistically significant impact on academic performance in both literacy and numeracy which translates into more than a year’s worth of learning. The main finding is robust to various robustness checks. In Chapter 3 the dissertation examines social cohesion by considering the concept of reference groups used in the evaluation of relative standing in utility functions. The chapter develops a model in which various parameters are allowed to enter the utility function without linearity constraints in order to determine the weight placed on the well-being of individuals in the same race group as the respondent versus all the other race groups living in one of three specified geographic areas. The findings suggest that reference groups have shifted away from a purely racial delineation to a more inclusive one subsequent to the country’s first democratic elections in 1994. Although most of the weight is still placed on same-race relative standing, the estimates suggest that individuals from other race groups also enter the utility function. The chapter also examines the spatial variation of reference groups and finds evidence that the relative standing of close others (such as neighbours) enter the utility function positively while individuals who live further away (strangers) enter the utility function negatively. Finally, Chapter 4 provides a summary of the dynamics of income in South Africa, using longitudinal household data. Chapter 4 is aimed at separating structural trends in income from stochastic shocks and measurement error, and makes use of an asset-based approach. It first estimates the percentage of individuals who were in chronic poverty between 2010 and 2012 and then estimates the shape of structural income dynamics in order to test for the existence of one or more dynamic equilibrium points, which would be indicative of the existence of a poverty trap. The findings do not provide any evidence for the existence of a poverty trap. In addition, contrary to earlier findings, the results do not provide evidence for the existence of an asset-based threshold at which the structural income accumulation paths of households bifurcate. Instead, the results seem to indicate the existence of a threshold beyond which structural income remains persistent with very little upward mobility. The robustness of the results is confirmed by making use of control functions in order to correct for any measurement error which may exist in the data on assets.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Twintig jaar nadat apartheid beëindig is word Suid-Afrika steeds as een van die wêreld se mees ongelyke lande gekenmerk. Sosio-ekonomiese polarisasie word verskans deur die gebrek aan sosiale kapitaal en interaksies tussen rassegroepe en ekonomiese klasse, wat lei tot die versperring van roetes uit armoede. Hierdie proefskrif bestudeer sosiale mobiliteit en samehorigheid in post-apartheid Suid- Afrika deur middel van drie verwante onderwerpe. Hoofstuk 2 van hierdie proefskrif ondersoek die impak van skoolkwaliteit op die akademiese prestasie van benadeelde leerders as een van die belangrikste faktore wat huidige sosiale en ekonomiese skeidings afdwing. Gegewe die historiese verdeling van die openbare skoolstelsel volgens ras en ekonomiese status, word heelwat swart kinders na historiese blanke skole gestuur ten einde armoede te ontsnap. Deur gebruik te maak van paneeldata word die impak van skoolbywoning van ’n historiese blanke skool op die geletterheid van swart kinders - in beide wiskunde en Engels - beraam. Die grootste uitdaging is om enige sydigheid in die beramings aan te spreek, waarvoor daar van ’n waarde-toevoegings inslag gebruik gemaak word ten einde te kontroleer vir enige individuele heterogeniteit. ’n Verskeidenheid kontroles op die vlak van die huishouding word gebruik ten einde te kontroleer vir verskille tussen kinders uit verkillende huishoudings. Die resultate dui daarop dat bywoning van ’n historiese wit skool ’n groot en statisties beduidende impak op die akademiese prestasie van beide wiskundige asook litterêre geletterdheid het, wat omgeskakel kan word in meer as ’n jaar se leerwerk. ’n Verskeidenheid verifikasie toetse bevestig die geldigheid van die resultate. Hoofstuk 3 van die proefskrif bestudeer sosiale samehorigheid deur die samestelling van verwysingsgroepe in die evaluasie van relatiewe posisionering in nutsfunksies te oorweeg. Die hoofstuk ontwikkel ’n model waarin verskeie parameters sonder liniêre beperkings in die nutsfunksie toegelaat word ten einde die gewig te beraam wat geplaas word op die welstand van individue in dieselfde rasgroep as die respondent teenoor al die ander rasgroepe wat in een van drie gespesifiseerde geografiese areas woon. Die bevindings dui daarop dat, na die land se eerste demokratiese verkiesings in 1994, die definiering van verwysingsgroepe weggeskuif het van ’n verdeling volgens ras na ’n meer inklusiewe definisie. Alhoewel meeste van die gewig steeds geplaas word op relatiewe posisionering teenoor individue van dieselfde ras, dui die beramings daarop dat individue van ander rassegroepe ook ingesluit word in die nutsfunksie. Die hoofstuk beoordeel ook die ruimtelike variasie van verwysingsgroepe en bevind dat die relatiewe posisionering van nabye individue (soos byvoorbeeld bure) die nutsfunksie positief beïnvloed terwyl individue wat vêr weg woon (vreemdelinge) die nutsfunksie negatief beïnvloed. Hoofstuk 4 van die proefskrif sluit af met ’n opsomming van die inkomste dinamika in Suid-Afrika, deur gebruik te maak van paneelhuishoudingdata. Die laaste hoofstuk mik om die strukturele tendens in inkomste van enige stogastiese skokke en metingsfoute te isoleer en maak gebruik van ’n bate-gebasseerde inslag. Dit beraam eerstens die persentasie van individue wat in kroniese armoede verkeer het tussen 2010 en 2012 en beraam dan die vorm van die strukturele inkomste dinamika. Dit word gedoen ten einde vir die bestaan van een of meer dinamiese ekwilibrium punte te toets, wat aanduidend sou wees van die bestaan van ’n armoedestrik. Die bevindings bied nie enige bewyse vir die bestaan van ’n armoedestrik nie. Ook bied die resultate geen bewyse vir die bestaan van ’n bategebasseerde drempel waar die strukturele inkomste akkumulasieroetes van huishoudings vertak nie, in teenstelling met vorige resultate. In plaas daarvan, blyk die resultate te dui op die bestaan van ’n drempel waarna strukturele inkomste volhardend bly met baie min opwaardse mobiliteit. Die geldigheid van die resultate word bevestig deur gebruik te maak van kontrolefunksies ten einde te korrigeer vir enige metingsfoute wat moontlik in die data van bates mag bestaan. Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2015 Wed, 01 Apr 2015 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/96872 2015-04-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/96775 Education quality in South Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa : an economic approach Spaull, Nicholas ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Education has always occupied a central role in the discipline of economics, featuring prominently in the theoretical constructs of the discipline and, more recently, in their empirical applications. While one can trace the origins of Human Capital theory all the way back to Adam Smith’s ‘The Wealth of Nations’, the two major advances in our understanding of education’s role in economic development transpired in the last 50 years. The first was half way through the 20th century with the work of work of Mincer (1958), Schultz (1961) and particularly that of Becker (1962) who formalized the idea of Human Capital. The second advance was at the turn of the 21st century when Hanushek and Kimko (and later Wößmann) incorporated measures of education quality into their models of economic growth. This latest strand of research serves as the point of departure for this thesis, placing education quality at the centre of the discussion. The thesis begins by focussing on the South African case and highlighting three broad issues that characterise education in the country: (1) the high levels of inequality that can be seen when comparing student performance by race, language, geographic location and socioeconomic status. New evidence is presented to show that South Africa does indeed have two public schooling systems, reiterating and confirming the findings of other South African scholars. (2) Using intra-survey benchmarks of student achievement, Chapter 2 develops a new method of quantifying learning deficits in mathematics by using three different datasets covering grades 3, 4, 5, 6 and 9. The learning gap between the poorest 60% of students and the wealthiest 20% of students is found to be approximately three grade-levels in grade 3 and grows to between four and five grade-levels by grade 9. (3) The focus then shifts to the complex issue of language and performance, which is addressed in Chapter 3. Here the aim is to exploit an unusual occurrence whereby a large group of South African students were tested twice, one month apart, on the same test in different languages. Using a simplified difference-in-difference methodology it becomes possible to identify the causal impact of writing a test in English when English is not a student’s home language. The final two chapters of the thesis widen the remit of analysis to include 11 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, viz. Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Here the aim is to develop a composite measure of education access and education quality by combining household data (DHS) on grade completion and survey data (SACMEQ) on cognitive outcomes. The new measure, termed access-to-literacy and access-to-numeracy is reported for all countries and important sub-groups in Chapter 4. The method is then used in Chapter 5 to compare access-to-learning over a period of increased access to schooling (2000-2007). In all countries there was an improvement in access to literacy and numeracy, challenging the widely held perception that there is always an access-quality trade-off in education. In particular, girls and those in relatively poor households benefited most from this improvement in access to literacy and numeracy. The thesis ultimately concludes that if children are to realize their full potential, the expansion of physical access to schooling in the developing world must be accompanied by meaningful learning opportunities. The acquisition of knowledge, skills and values must be the central aim of educational expansion.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Onderwys het nog altyd ʼn rol in ekonomie as vakgebied gespeel. Dit is verstaanbaar, want vaardighede en onderwys was nog altyd ʼn prominente deel van die teoretiese konstrukte en meer onlangs ook van empiriese toepassings in die dissipline. Terwyl die oorsprong van menslike-kapitaalteorie teruggevoer kan word na Adam Smith se Wealth of Nations, het die twee grootste deurbrake met die verstaan van onderwys se rol in ekonomiese ontwikkeling in die laaste vyftig jaar plaasgevind. Die werk van Mincer (1958), Schultz (1961) en veral Becker (1962), wat in die middel van die vorige eeu formele gestalte aan die begrip ‘menslike kapitaal’ gegee het, was die eerste deurbraak. Die tweede deurbraak was teen die eeuwending toe Hanushek en Kimko (en later Wößmann) maatstawwe van onderwysgehalte in hulle ekonomiese groeimodelle begin insluit het. Hierdie nuwe tak van die navorsing plaas onderwys vierkant in die sentrum en dien as vertrekpunt vir hierdie proefskrif. Die proefskrif begin deur aandag op drie breë kwessies te vestig wat kenmerkend is van onderwys in Suid-Afrika: (1) Die hoë vlakke van ongelykheid volgens ras, taal, geografiese gebied en sosio-ekonomiese status in studente se prestasie. (2) In hoofstuk 2 word ʼn nuwe metode aangebied om leeragterstrande kwantitatief te meet met behulp van norme van leerlingprestasie in skoolvlak-opnames vir grade 3, 4, 5, 6 en 9. Daar word bevind dat die leergaping tussen die armste 60% en die rykste 20% van studente in graad 3 ongeveer drie jaar is en teen graad 9 tot vier of vyf jaar aangroei. (3) Die fokus verskuif daarna na die verwikkelde kwessie van taal en skoolprestasie, wat in hoofstuk 3 bespreek word. Hier is die doel om die ongewone geval uit te buit waar ʼn groot groep Suid-Afrikaanse leerlinge binne die verloop van ʼn maand tweemaal dieselfde toets geskryf het, maar in twee verskillende tale. Met behulp van ʼn vereenvoudigde verskil-tussen-verskille-benadering is dit moontlik om te bepaal hoe groot die kousale effek is waar ʼn leerling wie se moedertaal nie Engels is nie die toets in Engels moes skryf. Die laaste twee hoofstukke van die proefskrif bevat ʼn wyer analise van elf lande in Sub-Sahara Afrika, naamlik Kenia, Lesotho, Malawi, Mosambiek, Namibia, Suid-Afrika, Swaziland, Tanzanië, Uganda, Zambië en Zimbabwe. Die doel is om ʼn saamgestelde maatstaf van onderwys-toegang en -gehalte te skep deur huishoudingsdata (DHS) oor graadvoltooiing en skoolopnamedata (SACMEQ) oor kognitiewe uitkomste te kombineer. Die nuwe maatstaf, genaamd ‘toegang-tot-geletterdheid’ en ‘toegang-tot-syfervaardigheid’, word in hoofstuk 4 vir al die lande en subgroepe opgestel. Die metode word dan in hoofstuk 5 gebruik om toegang-tot-leergeleenthede te vergelyk oor ʼn periode waartydens skooltoegang verbreed het (2000-2007). Daar was ʼn verbetering in toegang tot geletterdheid en syfervaardigheid in alle lande, teenstrydig met die wyd-gehuldigde siening dat daar altyd ʼn afruiling tussen toegang en gehalte van onderwys bestaan. In besonder word bevind dat meisies sowel as kinders uit arm huishoudings die meeste by die toename in toegang tot geletterdheid en syfervaardigheid gebaat het. Die gevolgtrekking is dat die vervulling van die potensiaal van kinders in die ontwikkelende wêreld vereis dat die verbreding van fisiese toegang tot skole met beduidende leergeleenthede gepaard moet gaan. Die aanleer van kennis, vaardighede en waardes moet die sentrale doel van die uitbreiding van onderwysgeleenthede wees. Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University. Wed, 01 Apr 2015 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/96775 2015-04-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/96055 The South African business cycle and the application of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models Kotze, Kevin Lawrence ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This dissertation considers the use of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models for the analysis of South African macroeconomic business cycle phenomena. It includes four separate, but interrelated parts, which follow a logical sequence. The rst part motivates the use of these models before establishing the theoretical foundations for these models. The theoretical foundations are accompanied by detailed derivations that are used to construct a model for a small open economy. The second part considers the properties of South African macroeconomic data that may be used to estimate the parameters in these models. It includes a discussion of the variables that may be included in such a model, as well as various methods that may be used to extract the business cycle. Thereafter, the sample size for the dataset is established, after investigating for possible structural breaks in the rst two moments of the data, using various univariate and multivariate techniques. The nal chapter of this part contains an investigation into the measures of core in ation, whereby a comparison of trimmed means, dynamic factor models and various wavelet decompositions are applied to data for South Africa. The third part considers the application of the dataset that was identi ed in part two, in a DSGE model that incorporates features that are typical of small open economies. It includes a discussion that relates to the role of the exchange rate in these models, which is found to contain key information. In addition, this part also includes a optimal policy investigation, which considers the reaction function of central bank. The nal part of this thesis considers more recent advances that have been applied to DSGE models for the South African economy. It includes an example of a nonlinear model that is estimated with the aid of a particle lter, which is then used for forecasting purposes. The forecasting results of both linear and nonlinear versions of the model are then compared with the results from various Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Bayesian VAR models.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie proefskrif oorweeg die gebruik van Dinamiese Stogastiese Algemene Ewewig (Engels: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE)) modelle vir die analise van besigheidsiklus gebeure in die Suid Afrikaanse makroekonomie. Dit bestaan uit vier aparte dog onderling verwante dele wat in « logiese ontwikkeling vorm. Die eerste deel motiveer die gebruik van dié modelle en daarna word die teoretiese onderbou van die modelle daargestel. Die teoretiese onderbou word aangevul met gedetaileerde stappe van die a eiding van die verhoudings wat gebruik word om « model vir « klein oop ekonomie saam te stel. Die tweede deel oorweeg die eienskappe van Suid Afrikaanse makroekonomiese data wat relevant is vir « ekonometriese model in hierdie konteks. Dit sluit « bespreking in van die veranderlikes wat vir so « model gebruik kan word, asook « bespreking van die verskeie metodes wat gebruik kan word om die besigheidsiklus uit die data te identi seer. Die steekproefgrootte van die data word dan vasgestel, ná die moontlikheid van strukturele onderbrekings van tendens in die eerste en tweede momente van die data ondersoek is met behulp van verskeie enkel en meervoudige-veranderlike tegnieke. Die laaste hoofstuk van dié deel is « studie van verskeie maatstawwe van kern in asie (core in ation), waar « vergelyking getref word tussen die resultate van die volgende metodes toegepas op Suid Afrikaanse data: afgesnede gemiddeldes (trimmed means), dinamiese faktor modelle en verskeie golfvormige onderverdelings (wavelet decompositions). Die derde deel gebruik die datastel, wat in deel twee ontwikkel is, in die passing van « DSGE model wat die tipiese eienskappe van « klein oop ekonomie inkorporeer. Dit sluit « bespreking in van die rol van die wisselkoers in hierdie tipe modelle, en daar word empiries bevind dat die wisselkoers belangrike inligting bevat. Hierdie deel sluit ook « ondersoek in van optimale beleid in terme van die reaksie funksie van die sentrale bank. Die laaste deel van die proefskrif bestudeer die resultate van onlangse ontwikkellinge in DSGE modelle wat toegepas word op die Suid Afrikaanse ekonomie. Dit sluit « voorbeeld van « nie-liniêre model wat met behulp van « partikel lter (particle lter) geskat word en gebruik word vir vooruitskattings. Die vooruitskattings uit beide die liniêre en nie-liniêre modelle word dan vergelyk met dié verkry uit verskeie Vektor Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. Mon, 01 Dec 2014 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/96055 2014-12-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/96023 Spatial heterogeneity, generational change and childhood socioeconomic status : microeconometric solutions to South African labour market questions Von Fintel, Dieter ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Microeconometric techniques have improved understanding of South Africa’s labour market substantially in the last two decades. This dissertation adds to this evidence by considering three separate labour market questions, with particular attention to data quality and the application of credible methodology. Firstly, wage flexibility is investigated. Whereas selected previous microeconometric evidence suggests that wage setters in South Africa are highly responsive to external local labour market circumstances, it is not corroborated by macroeconomic and other microeconometric studies. This question is interrogated again, with particular attention to methodological issues in wage curve estimation. The latter is a robust negative relationship between individual wages and local unemployment rates, found in most countries, except where bargaining is highly centralized. Adding time variation to the data allows controls for spatial heterogeneity to be introduced, leading to the conclusion that wages are really inflexible in the short-run. Rather, the trade-off between wages and local unemployment that previous work has found represents a long-run spatial equilibrium. This finding is robust to instrumentation for reverse causality and the measurement error that is associated with choosing incorrect labour market demarcations. Secondly, the reliability of retrospective data related to childhood is investigated, with the view of estimating the long-run influence that early life circumstances have on adult outcomes. Two indicators, parental education and subjective rankings of childhood socioeconomic status, are evaluated. The first set of indicators has poor response rates, as many South African children live without their parents. Where respondents do volunteer this information, they answer consistently across waves. Subjective rankings have higher response rates, as they require respondents to provide information about their own past, and not about those of their parents. However, individuals’ assessments are inconsistent over time, despite being asked about the same point in the life cycle. They tend to change their view of the past in line with adjustments to perceptions of their position in the village income distribution and subjective well-being, providing clear evidence of anchoring. Instrumental variables analysis has been used in previous studies to account for measurement error in subjective data. However, if anchoring affects all assessments of the past and potential outcome variables (such as employment), microeconometric techniques will yield biased estimates of the effects of childhood on long-run outcomes. Finally, age-period-cohort models for South African labour force participation are estimated. This chapter is the first contribution to relax the assumption that cohort differences must remain permanent over the life cycle. Monte-Carlo simulation studies show that highly interactive specifications can partially recover the true underlying process. Using a variety of techniques (imposing behavioural restrictions and atheoretical approaches), this study shows that cohort effects in labour force participation can be temporary in South Africa, though more data is required to verify this conclusively. Regardless of technique, a distinct surge in labour force participation is noted for the group born after 1975. Pertinently, the combination of testable assumptions and highly flexible estimation can yield credible age-period-cohort profiles, despite the many disputes noted in the literature. Previous evidence of a surge in participation for the post-1975 cohort can now be shown to be temporary rather than a part of a long-run generational increase.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Mikro-ekonometriese tegnieke het kennis oor die Suid-Afrikaanse arbeidsmark aansienlik uitgebrei in die afgelope twee dekades. Hierdie proefskrif dra by tot hierdie bewyse deur drie afsonderlike arbeidsmark vraagstukke te beskou, met die klem op datagehalte en toepassing van geloofwaardige metodologie. Eerstens word die kwessie van loonaanpasbaarheid beskou. Waar sekere vorige mikro-ekonometriese bewyse aandui dat loonbepalers in Suid-Afrika sterk op eksterne plaaslike arbeidsmarktoestande reageer, word hierdie bevinding nie deur makro-ekonomiese en ander mikro-ekonometriese studies ondersteun nie. Hierdie vraag word dus opnuut ondersoek, met die klem op metodologiese kwessies wat ‘n invloed op die beraming van die loonkurwe het. Laasgenoemde is die negatiewe verhouding tussen individuele lone en plaaslike werkloosheidskoerse wat in die meeste lande geld, behalwe daar waar loonbedinging sterk gesentraliseer is. Deur tydsvariasie by die data te voeg, is dit moontlik om vir heterogeniteit oor ruimte voorsiening te maak, wat tot die gevolgtrekking lei dat lone inderdaad onbuigsaam oor die korttermyn is. Die afruiling tussen lone en plaaslike werkloosheidskoerse wat vorige navorsing bevind het, verteenwoordig eerder ‘n langtermyn ruimtelike ewewig. Hierdie bevinding is nie sensitief vir instrumentasie nie. Laasgenoemde is nodig om voorsiening te maak vir moontlike sydigheid wat kan ontstaan indien die rigting van kousaliteit omgekeerd is, sowel as metingsfoute wat daarmee gepaard gaan as navorsers die plaaslike arbeidsmark verkeerd definiëer. Tweedens word die betroubaarheid van data wat volwassenes vra om hulle kinderomstandighede te onthou, ondersoek. Die uiteindelike doel is om vas te stel of omstandighede vroeg in die lewe ‘n invloed op die uitkomstes van volwassenes het. Twee veranderlikes, naamlik ouers se opvoedingsvlakke en die subjektiewe terugskouende sosioekonomiese rang in respondente se kinderdae, word geëvalueer. Die eerste stel veranderlikes is onderhewig aan lae reaksiekoerse omdat ‘n aansienlike hoeveelheid Suid-Afrikaanse kinders sonder een of beide ouers grootword. Waar respondente wel hierdie inligting verskaf is individue se antwoorde konsekwent tussen twee golwe van ‘n paneelopname. Die vraag na die subjektiewe rang lewer beter reaksiekoerse omdat dit vereis dat respondente inligting oor hulle eie verlede verskaf, en nie oor dié van hul ouers nie. Nietemin is individue se antwoorde strydig oor tyd, ten spyte daarvan dat hulle inligting oor dieselfde tydstip in die lewenssiklus moet verskaf. Hulle is geneig om hulle opinies oor die verlede in lyn met veranderende persepsies van hul huidige posisie in die dorpsinkomsteverdeling, sowel as hulle eie subjektiewe welstand, aan te pas. Dit verskaf dus ‘n sterk aanduiding dat mense hulle antwoorde oor die verlede in huidige toestande anker. Instrumentele veranderlike analise is in vorige studies aangewend om voorsiening te maak vir metingsfoute in subjektiewe data. Indien inligting oor die verlede, asook moontlik uitkomsteveranderlikes (soos indiensname), geanker word in huidige persepsies, sal mikroekonometriese tegnieke egter steeds sydige beramings van die impak van kinderdae op langtermyn uitkomstes bied. Laastens, word sogenaamde ouderdom-periode-kohort modelle op Suid-Afrikaanse arbeidsmarkdeelname data toegepas. Hierdie hoofstuk is die eerste bydrae wat die aanname dat kohortverskille permanent moet bly oor die lewenssiklus laat vaar. Monte-Carlo simulasies dui aan dat hoogs interaktiewe spesifikasies die onderliggende proses gedeeltelik kan weerspieël. Verskeie tegnieke word aangewend (insluitend dié wat gedragsaannames afdwing asook ateoretiese benaderings) wat wys dat kohorteffekte in arbeidsmarkdeelname tydelik kan wees. Tog word meer data benodig om hierdie stelling sonder twyfel te bevestig. Onafhanklik van die tegniek wat gebruik word, is dit duidelik dat ‘n skerp toename in arbeidsmarkdeelname plaasgevind het vir die groep wat na 1975 gebore is. Verder is dit beduidend dat die kombinasie van toetsbare aannames en hoogs buigsame beramers ‘n geloofwaardige oplossing vir die ouderdoms-periode-kohort probleem verskaf, ten spyte van die vele twispunte wat in die literatuur uitgelig word. Vorige bewyse van ‘n toename in arbeidsmagdeelname vir die post-1975 kohort kan nou as ‘n tydelike tendens bestempel word, eerder as ‘n deel van die langtermyn toename oor generasies. Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. Mon, 01 Dec 2014 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/96023 2014-12-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/96005 The influence of fiscal policymaking frameworks on fiscal outcomes : evidence from the European Union Siebrits, Franz Krige ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This dissertation explores the potential of centralised, top-down procedural rules (also known as budget-process rules) and independent fiscal councils to complement numerical fiscal rules as devices for preventing fiscal profligacy. To this end, it studies the connections between fiscal policymaking frameworks and fiscal outcomes in fourteen European Union countries in the years from 1998 to 2004. The fiscal policymaking frameworks of these countries contained various configurations of numerical rules, procedural rules and fiscal councils, and the study uses differences in the degrees to which the countries complied with the supranational rules of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) as a measure of the efficacy of these configurations at preventing fiscal profligacy. The analysis itself consists of two parts. The first part – a cross-sectional analysis of all fourteen countries – uses a set-theoretic technique known as fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to identify connections between various configurations of the elements of fiscal policymaking frameworks and the degrees to which the countries complied with the SGP rules. These connections are interpreted in terms of sufficiency and necessity and used to identify pathways to consistent compliance with the SGP rules. The second part of the analysis consists of case studies of three of the fourteen countries (Finland, France and Ireland). The case studies are used to verify aspects of the set-theoretic analysis, namely the specification of the set-theoretic model (especially the influence of the preferences of policymakers on compliance with the SGP rules), the accuracy of the quantitative measures of the efficacy of elements of fiscal policymaking frameworks, the explanatory value of the solution pathways and the country-level relevance of two hypotheses derived from the results of the analysis. The set-theoretic analysis finds some evidence of the efficacy of fiscal policymaking frameworks consisting of combinations of numerical rules, procedural rules and fiscal councils, but establishes that such multifaceted frameworks were neither necessary nor sufficient for preventing fiscal profligacy. The study also shows, in tentative fashion in the set-theoretic analysis and more forcefully in the case studies, that the preferences of policymakers were critical determinants of the effectiveness of all types of fiscal policymaking frameworks. Hence, it concludes that the potential of multifaceted fiscal policymaking frameworks should not be exaggerated. In addition, it argues that an unwavering commitment to fiscal prudence complemented by policymaking framework elements chosen to overcome specific incentive distortions is a more promising approach for preventing fiscal profligacy than such multifaceted frameworks per se. More generally, the findings of the study confirm the scope for using fsQCA and other case-oriented methods to complement regression-based analyses of the effectiveness of fiscal policymaking frameworks.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie proefskrif ondersoek die potensiaal van gesentraliseerde, bo-na-onder begrotingsprosesreëls en onafhanklike fiskale rade om numeriese reëls aan te vul as meganismes om fiskale spandabelrigheid te verhinder. Met hierdie doel voor oë bestudeer dit die verbande tussen fiskale beleidmakingsraamwerke en fiskale uitkomste in veertien lidlande van die Europese Unie in die jare van 1998 tot 2004. Die fiskale beleidmakingsraamwerke van hierdie lande het verskeie konfigurasies van numeriese reëls, begrotingsprosesreëls en fiskale rade bevat, en die studie gebruik verskille in die mate waartoe die lande die bonasionale reëls van die Stabiliteits- en Groeiverdrag (“Stability and Growth Pact”, oftewel SGP) nagekom het as ‘n maatstaf van hierdie konfigurasies se doelmatigheid met betrekking tot die verhindering van fiskale spandabelrigheid. Die ontleding self bestaan uit twee dele. Die eerste deel – ‘n kruissnitontleding van al veertien lande – gebruik ‘n versamelingsteoretiese tegniek was as “fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis” (fsQCA) bekend staan om verbande te identifiseer tussen verskillende konfigurasies van die elemente van fiskale beleidmakingsraamwerke en die mate waartoe die lande die SGP-reëls nagekom het. Hierdie verbande word aan die hand van genoegsaamheid en noodsaaklikheid geïnterpreteer en gebruik om roetes na nakoming van die SGP-reëls te identifiseer. Die tweede deel van die ontleding bestaan uit gevallestudies van drie van die veertien lande (Finland, Frankryk en Ierland). Die gevallestudies word gebruik om aspekte van die versamelingsteoretiese ontleding te toets, naamlik die spesifikasie van die versamelingsteoretiese model (veral die invloed van die voorkeure van beleidmakers op nakoming van die SGP-reëls), die akkuraatheid van die kwantitatiewe maatstawwe van die doelmatigheid van elemente van fiskale beleidmakingsraamwerke, die verklarende waarde van die oplossingsroetes asook die tersaaklikheid vir individuele lande van twee hipoteses wat uit die resultate van die ontleding voortvloei. Die versamelingsteoretiese ontleding vind aanduidings van die doelmatigheid van fiskale beleidsraamwerke wat kombinasies van numeriese reëls, begrotingsprosesreëls en fiskale rade bevat, maar stel vas dat sulke saamgestelde raamwerke nóg noodsaaklik nóg genoegsaam vir die verhindering van fiskale spandabelrigheid was. Die studie toon ook, op tentatiewe wyse in die versamelingsteoretiese ontleding en meer oortuigend in die gevallestudies, dat die voorkeure van beleidmakers deurslaggewende bepalers van die doelmatigheid van alle tipes beleidmakingsraamwerke was. Dit kom dus tot die gevolgtrekking dat die potensiaal van saamgestelde fiskale beleidmakingsraamwerke nie oordryf moet word nie. Voorts voer dit aan dat ‘n onwrikbare verbintenis tot fiskale dissipline, aangevul deur elemente van beleidsmakingsraamwerke wat gekies is om spesifieke verwringings van aansporings te bowe te kom, groter belofte inhou as ‘n benadering om fiskale spandabelrigheid te verhinder as sulke saamgestelde raamwerke per se. Op ‘n breër vlak bevestig die studie dat daar heelwat ruimte bestaan om fsQCA en ander metodes wat op gevalle konsentreer, te gebruik om regressie-ontledings van die doelmatigheid van fiskale beleidmakingsraamwerke aan te vul. Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. Mon, 01 Dec 2014 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/96005 2014-12-01T00:00:00Z http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/86578 Education and country growth models Gustafsson, Martin Anders ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The over-arching concern of the three parts of the dissertation is how economics can and should influence education policymaking, the emphasis on the economics side being models of country development and the contribution made by human capital. Part I begins with a review of economic growth theory. How educational performance and country development have been measured is then discussed, with considerable attention going towards conceptual and measurement complexities associated with the latter. An approach is presented for expanding the number of countries whose educational quality can be compared, by expanding the number of linkable testing programmes. This approach, which above all allows for the inclusion of more African and Latin American countries, is one of the key contributions made by the dissertation to the existing body of knowledge. Three existing empirical growth models are examined, including work by Hanushek and Woessman on the relationship between educational quality and income. Part I ends with a discussion on how the economics literature can best be packaged to influence education policymaking. A ‘growth simulator’ tool in Excel for informing the policy discourse is presented. The production of this tool includes establishing empirically a feasible improvement trajectory for educational quality that policymakers can use and some analysis of how linguistic fractionalisation in a country evolves over time. This tool can be considered a further key output of the dissertation. A basic model for relating educational quality, via income growth, to teacher pay, is presented. Part II offers an analysis of UNESCO country-level data on enrolment and spending going back to 1970, with a view to establishing historical patterns that can inform education planners, particularly those in developing countries, on how budgets and enrolment expansion should be distributed across the levels of the education system. The analysis presented in Part II represents a novel way of using existing countrylevel data and can be seen as an important step towards filling a gap experienced by education policymakers, namely the paucity of empirical evidence that can guide decisions around the prioritisation of education levels. Part II moreover arrives at a few empirical findings, including the finding that enrolment and spending patterns have been systematically different in countries with faster economic growth and the finding that historical per student spending at the secondary level appears to play a larger role in development than was previously thought. Part III contrasts the available economic advice for education policymakers with what policymakers actually appear to believe in. The focus falls, in particular, on four developing countries: South Africa, Brazil, Chile and China. A few areas where economists could explore the data to a greater degree or communicate available findings differently, in the interests of better education policies, are identified. Part III partly serves as a demonstration of how comparisons between education systems can be better oriented towards providing advice to education policymakers on questions relating to efficiency and equity.; AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die oorkoepelende fokus van die drie gedeeltes van die verhandeling is hoe die studie van ekonomie beleid in die onderwyssektor kan en moet beïnvloed. Veral belangrik is modelle van die ekonomiese groei van lande en die rol van menslike kapitaal in hierdie modelle. Die eerste gedeelte van die verhandeling bied oorsig van die teorie rakende ekonomiese groei. Hoe onderwysprestasie en nasionale ontwikkeling gemeet word, word dan bespreek, met sterk fokus op die konseptuele en tegniese kompleksiteit van laasgenoemde. Metode word aangebied waardeur meer lande se onderwysgehalte vergelyk kan word, deur middel van die koppeling van data van groter aantal toetsprogramme. Hierdie metode, wat veral die insluiting van meer lande uit Afrika en Latyn-Amerika toelaat, is een van die kernbydraes van die verhandeling tot die bestaande korpus van kennis. Drie bestaande empiriese modelle van ekonomiese groei word geanaliseer, insluitende die werk van Hanushek en Woessman oor die verhouding tussen onderwysgehalte en inkomste. Die eerste gedeelte sluit af met bespreking oor hoe die ekonomiese literatuur optimaal aangebied kan word om beleidmaking in die onderwys te beïnvloed. Groei-simulasie hulpmiddel in Excel wat die beleidsdiskoers kan vergemaklik word aangebied en verduidelik. Die ontwikkeling van hierdie gereedskap maak dit moontlik om op empiriese basis moontlike trajek vir die verbetering van onderwysgehalte te bepaal, wat vir beleidsmakers nuttig kan wees, sowel as ontleding van hoe linguïstiese verbrokkeling in land histories kan ontwikkel. Hierdie gereedskap kan as verdere sleutelproduk van die verhandeling beskou work. Basiese model van hoe onderwysgehalte en die inkomste van onderwysers deur middel van ekonomiese groei gekoppel is, word ook aangebied. Die tweede gedeelte van die verhandeling bied ontleding van UNESCO se nasionale statistieke van lande oor skoolinskrywings en onderwysuitgawes vanaf 1970, met die oog op die identifikasie van belangrike historiese tendense vir onderwysbeplanners, veral in ontwikkelende lande. Die fokus hier is veral op hoe begrotings en inskrywings ideaal oor die verskillende vlakke van die onderwysstelsel versprei behoort te wees. Die ontleding in die tweede gedeelte verteenwoordig innoverende manier om die bestaande nasionale statistieke te gebruik en kan beskou word as belangrike stap om gaping te vul wat deur beleidsmakers in die onderwys ondervind word, naamlik die gebrek aan empiriese gegewens vir besluite oor prioritisering tussen onderwysvlakke. Die tweede gedeelte bied ook verskeie empiriese bevindinge, soos dat die tendense rakende inskrywings en besteding per student sistematies tussen lande met vinniger ekonomiese groei en ander lande verskil, asook dat historiese besteding per student op die sekondêre vlak blykbaar groter invloed op ontwikkeling het as wat vroeër gedink is. Die derde gedeelte van die verhandeling vergelyk die advies wat die ekonomiese literatuur aan beleidmakers in die onderwys bied met wat beleidmakers self blykbaar glo. Die fokus val op veral vier ontwikkelende lande: Suid-Afrika, Brasilië, Chili en China. Gebiede word bespreek waar ekonome in die belang van beter onderwysbeleid tot groter mate data kan analiseer of bevindings op beter maniere kan kommunikeer. Die derde gedeelte kan beskou word as demonstrasie van hoe vergelykings tussen verskeie onderwysstelsels beter georiënteer kan word om vir die beleidmaker in die onderwys advies te verskaf rakende kwessies van doeltreffendheid en gelykheid. Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. Tue, 01 Apr 2014 00:00:00 GMT http://scholar.sun.ac.za:80/handle/10019.1/86578 2014-04-01T00:00:00Z